I think it is unlikely that hedge fund picking is possible for the following reasons. First, if a fund consistently produces outsized risk-adjusted returns the fund would increase their fees to capture most of those returns (Rentech, formerly Bridgewater). Second, a fund which has outsized risk adjusted returns net of fees would become very popular, receive more investment which creates a drag on returns until either the fund closes to new investors (Rentech) or returns reverted to the mean.
Funds frequently return capital or close to new money in order to stay below their investment capacity. Funds also sometimes charge less than the maximum they can get away with for various reasons. The premise of your argument is simply wrong. Moreover, you are ignoring the very real excess profits that are made on the way to this hypothetical equilibrium. Berkshire Hathaway shares aren't going to make you rich if you buy them today, but I'm guessing the people who bought them in 1970 don't care.
> Funds frequently return capital or close to new money in order to stay below their investment capacity.
The point is they are not open to investment once you have historical evidence that they are "good".
> Funds also sometimes charge less than the maximum they can get away with for various reasons.
The only reason I can think of is to increase investment. But that will happen even for minimal excess return.
> Moreover, you are ignoring the very real excess profits that are made on the way to this hypothetical equilibrium. Berkshire Hathaway shares aren't going to make you rich if you buy them today, but I'm guessing the people who bought them in 1970 don't care.
Obviously there are excess returns the question is if they can be reliably identified before hand and are accessible.
Are you invested in hedge funds? Which ones do you think are good now?
The cliche among hedge fund guys is to be "long term greedy" not "short term greedy", which explains why some funds try to be more investor friendly with fees. You also have flukes like Berkshire that seem to have undercharged simply out of benevolence. I don't really discuss my investments much, but I mostly do not invest in hedge funds for reasons of tax efficiency--a restriction that doesn't apply to many institutional investors. The one fund I am invested in has significantly outperformed with low risk during my holding period. The funds that I would invest in are small funds that probably no one here has heard of.
