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No. Once you take an event as given, its probability is now 1. In conventional notation, P(A|A) = 1 ("the probability of A given A is 1"). For the sake of argument, it has now occurred, and the probability of an event that has already occurred is 1, just as the probability of an event that didn't occur in the past is now 0.


The "chance" here is the probability of the second crash will happen given the first crash happens. Because the first crash is given, its probability should be taken to be 1.

There's also whether the probability of a crash occurring on any given day is actually 1/365, but that's another issue.




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