I have a similar model for league matches, and the home advantage usually works ... | Hacker News

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		phreeza on May 28, 2014 \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: World Cup 2014 Predictions and Results I have a similar model for league matches, and the home advantage usually works out to something like 0.1 goals per match. It's important in estimating the odds, but rarely tips the balance with respect to who the most likely winner is.

lazyant on May 28, 2014 [–]

"Soccernomics" claims iirc that the home stadium (not exactly the same as home country) advantage is a full 1 goal

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