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That's why I said "approximately". :)

By the binomial series [1], the true value is 1-(1-p)^n = np - n(n-1)/2! p^2 + n(n-1)(n-2)/3! p^3 + ...

So approximating it to just np corresponds to taking just the leading term of the series. Of course, this is only valid when p is small enough. To see how good the approximation is, we can compare it to the two first terms of the series, which is np - n(n-1)/2 p^2, or approximately np - (np)^2 /2.

So the approximation np is about twice the percentage difference between the approximation and the true value. In this case, the approximation np is about 2%, and that guess is itself about 1% wrong.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_series



Rule 99732: When you can't admit you were wrong, argue on technicalities!


He wasn't wrong, he made an approximation.




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