You state it as if its only the quality of the hypothesis that matters, but you are ignoring an important part of it, timing. During the 08 financial crisis Burry had a hypothesis that was correct, however he almost went bankrupt still because he thought it would happen earlier than it did because of the government bailouts. He was pushing the day forward, and was looking like a "hapless doomsday cult". His hypothesis still turned out correct
If you can't say when something will happen you are just playing with statistics on another domain.
Seems like this chaps problem was that the actions were based upon a different hypothesis than the one he stated. X will cause Y by the end of the year is considerably different to X will eventually cause Y.
