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But the origin of SpaceX is not one of a government-cultivated monopoly. There were more than 200 space startups so far, I believe, and the vast majority of those simply went belly up. SpaceX was once an absolutely unremarkable element of this large set and they almost went belly up as well - their fourth (and first successful ) launch of Falcon 1 was literally the last one that they had money for. Even 5 years into their existence, no one would be able to foretell that it will be them and not anyone else who eventually becomes the behemoth is its.

If someone really fits the description of a quasi-monopoly systematically supported by the government for decades, it is Boeing and ULA in general. They get/got all the cost-plus contracts that were the real cash cow. SpaceX only got fixed-cost contracts.

I rooted for a lot of companies, my favorite was Armadillo Aeronautics by John Carmack, because I admire Carmack. But space seems to be genuinely hard.



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