If we ignore that people are literally profiting from running the prediction market that happens to make it visible and giving incentive to uninvolved parties to have a STRONG OPINION about any type of event for the purpose of gambling, yeah, I guess that's a point.
The point is that such perverse incentives already exist in a lot of places. Polymarket style betting on the scale that it enables is new but it's just that, a difference in scale but not kind.
The reason I bring that up is to caution against an overreaction to treating it like it's a brand new thing that needs to be dealt with in some unique way. Instead, trying to figure out why the existing mechanisms that prevent the same kind of abuses might not work at scale is a better mindset, I think.
