It seems to me that average programmer and working programmer overlap quite a bit. I might never be a great programmer but there are still plenty of jobs out there I can do well as an average programmer and I always have work.

If you're not a 'working programmer' (i.e. improving things by being there) you may just be a 'Bad Programmer'. IMHO.

Unless you happen to work for a company/department with awesome, stable practices and quality output I guess.