How should readers assess the credibility of these claims that 12k, 36k, or 100k have been killed? I'm not there. I haven't seen anything with my own eyes. Should I expect that if the death toll reaches X, then Y form of evidence would make it out?
Personally, I believe the concern and outrage is warranted even if the death toll is indeed only (!) the 3,000 claimed by Iranian state media. That is the most conservative number so far and it is still an almost unimaginable number in such a short period of time.
Credible reporting puts the number somewhere between 30-40k among the intelligence community - comments and discussions have happened in public, and various officials around the world have repeated that range several times over the last week or so.
The information and sources are there for you to search, and it's up to you to determine who you find credible and why.
> Credible reporting puts the number somewhere between 30-40k among the intelligence community
The same intelligence community bragging that they're embedded among the protestors and engaging in covert-action (oxymoronic as it sounds) to bring about regime change?
That said it's been pointed out to me that my link is statements by anonymous government officials, which is not the same thing as "official Iranian government numbers".
Gazan health authorities were releasing the names of their dead, and this was met with great skepticism and qualification in Israel and the West (until this week when Israel just accepted at least tens of thousands died).
Random, inflated numbers from anonymous sources pop up on Iran and they're instantly quoted as fact.
Also - some of the rebels have guns and have been using them, so some of these dead are from shootouts.
I think, as sad as it sounds, the exact number doesn’t really matter.
We know: We know: a government whose sole purpose is to protect its people has committed the mass murder of unarmed civilians. has committed the mass murder of unarmed civilians.
That’s all there is to know to make a judgement about what has happened.
If you want to have a philosophical discussion about whether that is really the "sole purpose of government", then I suppose we could have one, though frankly my interest in that isn't all that high.
That's a long way from asserting that it is, in fact, the sole purpose of government, which was what I objected to.
I find the numbers to be surreal. The Gaza war is estimated to have around 100.000 dead (if you also count those who were buried under collapsed buildings or died of indirect causes). That was after two years of bombardment.
The Gaza war is a war with the side with the superior army trying to avoid killing. In Iran's war on it's own people, the superior army is trying to kill "as a punishment" (their words).
The same is true for the Russia-Ukraine war, btw. There have been 1300 victims per day for over 3 years. Russia is not trying to minimize casualties.
Why is it surprising that it results in an extreme difference in death toll? Or at least, in the rate of killing.
Yes, but 1300 victims per day, which is absolutely horrible, but still less than 6000 - 50.000 victims per day.
Or as another point of comparison (according to Wikipedia) : The bombing of Dresden went over three days and cost 25.000 lives. The bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki actually resulted in 100.000 immediate deaths.
All those locations - the Donbas, Gaza, Dresden, Hiroshima and Nagasaki were complete wastelands afterwards.
This makes it hard to believe for me. That being said, 3000 would still be absolutely gruesome.
I think in Russia's case it's a matter of practicality. It's not like every day they have an average number of dead and there certainly have been days with far more than 1000 victims per day, they have at least reached 5000 in a single day. I bet fighting around Kyiv got the rate much higher 3 years back too. Ukraine and Russia are not fighting in dense cities like Teheran, but in small rural villages mostly, and a lot of the time in fields, in treelines. Tough to kill many people there.
Iranian Islamic guard was slaughtering people in dense crowds in the middle of skyscrapers. That certainly makes those numbers realistic to me.
I don't know but the videos coming out are horrific. I don't understand how the Gaza crowd is supporting the Iranian regime/trying to bury this after they just fought so hard to get the Gazan's suffering seen/heard.
I stopped collecting specific examples because it does no good (people asking your question previously weren't really asking in good faith) but jumping back to the last time I was:
SyrianGirl and others in the same space on X (way way more that's just the first off the top of my head). Lots in comments on BlueSky labeling it all a zionist plot. Lots in comments Reddit labeling it all a zionist plot.
I think those spread Russian propaganda. I can see why the Russian dictatorship would want people rising up against dictators shot but it's not representative of general support for palestinians.
She was highly retweeted during the biggest Gaza discussion days. But no true Scotsman I guess. That's just one example off the top of my head. Again I'm not chasing down all the social media. Go read comments under the released videos coming out of Iran. Go read the comments under anti-regime Iranians pleas. Go google the Palestinian protests for people holding up signs supporting Iran, like the example I gave.
I feel I gave plenty of examples, from actual support at actual protests up to a major western newspaper talking about how people react, to specific people doing exactly what I said here. If that isn't enough you are intentionally being blind to it.
Taken from my above links:
sporkxrocket 26 days ago | parent | context | on: Iran Protest Map
I understand the Middle East and know that Iran is our ally in the fight against Zionism. I also understand that these "protests" are inorganic and have failed in their attempt to inflict damage on Iran."
Direct comments on this site saying this is all just Israel and illegitimate is somehow 'not supportive'? Saying they support the Iranian regime. In what world are those comments not supporting the Iranian regime like I claimed?
I changed the search to Google since you couldn't.
First search I did pulled up this recent Palestinian march with support for the Iranian regime. I guess that's also not being supportive of the Iranian regime in your mind?
I refer back to my 'people asking for this here don't seem to be in good faith'. I'm assuming you are just a troll at this point and I'm moving on.
You honestly cannot know and anyone who claims you can should be suspected. It's probably between what the government claims (which will tend to be lower) and what people estimate. Some groups are only logging confirmed deaths are around 12k+ probably increasing by the day.
But if it's 5-10-20 or even more k, how much difference does it make? The crime of mass killing and collective punishment is still as gruesome either way
Iranian official figures[1] put the final death toll at ~3111 for the entire duration of the protests (about a month). They have supposedly published names and identification numbers for about ~2900. So that gives a baseline at least.
Figures thrown around like 12k/20k/30k in 2 days - frankly beggar belief. Compare it to the recent (and ongoing) massacre of Gaza. which at its peak we were talking 1000-2000 deaths per day. The Israelis were dropping 2000-pound bombs and shelling non-stop until the entire strip into rubble. Reaching similar numbers against armed protestors without resorting to heavy weapons doesn't seem plausible. On top of it, 100s of thousands of injured (claimed along with the deaths). Again in 2 days. Even in a country of 90 million, can you imagine the utter pandemonium in every hospital. Mass graves. The blood and bodies at the squares. It would be visible from space. It would impossible to conceal. You have to go to Babi Yar in WW2 to get similar figures.
Beyond that its hard for me to tell. I dont trust any of this, given the interests and parties involved and the sources pushing these narratives . The legacy media is in full-blown propaganda offensive. The accounts and claims seem to come from a constellation of anti-regime NGOs, activists, Israeli lobbyists, neocons and intelligence agencies. Statements and actions of western and Israeli leaders make it abundantly clear this is an armed regime-change operation backed by numerous US, Israeli and western-backed proxy groups. US carrier strike groups have finally arrived in Gulf of Oman and suddenly the news stories pick up again. A month ago the same CSG was off the coast of Venezuela while the nobel prize was being awarded to an opponent of the Venezuelan government. Now that same nobel-laureate is meeting up with Reza Pahlavi and opponents of the Iranian government while Trump is sabre-rattling again. It all feels like deja-vu all over again. Netanyahu and the Israelis really want their Iran war and they need the Americans to carry it home for them.
