What is it that new grads are going through? If you are referring to difficulty finding a job, keep in mind that there is both an economic downturn and an over-hiring correction happening in the industry right now. I imagine the AI industry is indeed having an impact in how management is behaving, but I would not yet bet on AI actually replacing developers jobs holistically.
I can talk about my own experiences.
About a year and half ago I dropped everything to get into tech, a couple years out from completing my civil engineering degree because I hated it.
I worked very intensely day in day out building many projects, and I had one project go extremely viral, changing my life.
That led to me getting hired at a small AI start up, where I learned an enormous amount, but 9 months later, I still got let go as work had dried up for the product I was working on. Not much I was able to do there unfortunately.
Still, I really do believe that due to AI there was just far less work that I could meaningful contribute to, speaking as someone who is more junior in the field. Little bug fixes here and there, organization, grunt work tasks, etc - those are completely automated now.
The rungs on the ladder of meaningful progression are growing increasingly wider as eac day goes by.
A decade ago I think big tech companies would be fighting to get me on board, but now it's different,
That said, to end this comment on some silver lining - I know someone who currently works at a big lab who got an enormous amount of work xp by contributing on OSS projects till he became more senior, so maybe there's more to it.
Also one other thought - companies will still have job postings for juniors because a "junior" can be an MIT IOI gold medalist.