Every time I hear people claiming India and China now not using dollar and the end of dollar’s dominance, I feel it’s coming from mostly clickbait headlines, not data. From a global payments share, dollar is still the single largest currency from a percentage standpoint, and is at historically highest share of global trade. Any changes to currency share are coming from lower volume from the Euro. On top of that, if you look at foreign reserves, yes there has been a recent selloff from the peak, but we are still at 60% of global reserves and its still kind of around the same historical average for the last 30+ years.
Edit: I also want to add, that while having the international trade entirely in dollar sounds very appealing, it can actually destroy US exports and damage the trade balance. This can have massive impact on domestic as well as global economies. What you want is a strong enough dollar.
I think youre conflating 2 different things, share as a payment currency and share as reserve.
Share as a payment/trade currency is not going away though it will be greatly reduced especially with CIPS that bypasses SWIFT.Andmost data showing no change is usually from SWIFT - with zero visibility to the volumes in CIPS.
Share as reserve is more visibly viz central banks stacking gold and hedging on treasuries , with most tresurie bids coming in from offshore financial hubs likethe Caymans.So could be a whole shellgame there to inflate the volumes.
So yeah the $ isnt going away anytime soon (cross border trade still requires it in many places),the exorbitant privilege it enjoyed is.
> Every time I hear people claiming India and China now not using dollar and the end of dollar’s dominance, I feel it’s coming from mostly clickbait headlines
I would encourage you to actually take a gander at the history of reserve currencies, how long they last, how they lose their reserve status, and what the current state of thinking around where the dollar is headed.
Unless you would classify the IMF as a clickbait farm, of course.
Start with the brit. pound and what led its downfall to the niche financial instrument it is today.
But the pound is just the latest, and by no mean the only one.
Edit: I also want to add, that while having the international trade entirely in dollar sounds very appealing, it can actually destroy US exports and damage the trade balance. This can have massive impact on domestic as well as global economies. What you want is a strong enough dollar.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-...