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It's both.

The devaluation of the dollar relative to other currencies will eventually make it profitable for work to move to the US.

I think we're not seeing that yet because there's an imperfect coupling between asset price inflation, consumer price inflation, and exchange rates.



It may be a short term solution, on the right time scale I'd give it that.

The only way its a long term solution is if globalization is so fundamentally different from what other countries and empires have felt with that they can actually devalue at just the right rate to bring work back here.

Getting that rate right seems like a tiny needle to thread though, and that only works if this situation is different from when other currencies were devalued intentionally.


I think you might be confusing 'devaluation' with 'loss of spending power'. The dollar hasn't really lost value compared to other currencies. The thing that would do that would a loss of faith in the US to pay its debts, not the inability for the dollar to sustain a certain purchasing power.


> The dollar hasn't really lost value compared to other currencies

Yes it has. Euro costs 10% more in USD than one year ago


> Yes it has. Euro costs 10% more in USD than one year ago.

But more or less only the euro. The USD has strengthened or held steady against INR, RMB, CAD, AUD, etc. The euro is strengthening even more, however.


Look at the gold price. Or BTC.

By those metrics the dollar has lost a lot of value in the last year


Gold prices are wonky right now because it was Diwali [0] and India did a large GST reform [1] that unlocked consumer capital for gold.

Once Diwali ended a couple weeks ago, Gold prices slumped [2].

The same thing happened with Silver [3].

You used to see similar stuff happen around CNY back when China was growing at double digit speeds [4].

[0] - https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/10/27/indians-spend-up-to-11-b...

[1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/winners-losers-indias-sw...

[2] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-20/gold-s-re...

[3] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-18/sold-out-...

[4] - https://ecomod.net/system/files/gold_and_china_ecomod2013.pd...


Is that what you meant by devaluation? That the dollar has lost 10% of it exchange compared to the euro?


I don't particularly care about whether one currency is devalued relative to another. Sure that can matter, international trade is important today, but I care about whether my currency is being devalued relative to the products I actually buy day to day.

The dollar is being devalued every time more money is injected into the system, either by government printing or banks printing more money via unsecured debt. When the total amount of currency in circulation goes up my money was devalued, prices will always go up when the money supply increases.


> The dollar is being devalued every time more money is injected into the system,

I was pointing out somewhat pedantically that 'devalued' has a specific meaning and 'to lose purchasing power' is not it.

> When the total amount of currency in circulation goes up my money was devalued, prices will always go up when the money supply increases.

If you got more of that money to cover increased costs then it wouldn't be a problem, so it really only matters if you don't get a bump in income that covers the decrease in purchasing power.

The problem is not money supply increasing -- it is that it is being misallocated. The money supply has to increase in order for economies to grow otherwise it would deflate, and that cause all sorts of worse problems.


Sounds like we just fundamentally disagree here, nothing wrong with that.

I view the increase in money supply a core issue that harms all of us. Yes, it wouldn't technically matter if all of us received the new money in a perfect allocation based on the amount of money we currently hold - if I have $100 and the supply increases by 2% I'm fine if I now have $102. It never works like that though, and never will.

Allocation is only one of the challenges to deal with when debasing the currency by increasing supply.


There is no perfect policy and everything has a trade-off. I guess the question really is 'what happens if we can't increase money supply?' and determining whether we'd we better off with those effects.




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