This is true. Anecdata, but I talked to some of the “Republicans for Bernie” back then, and it was real, not astroturf. We’d be in a different place if Bernie had been the Dem candidate in 2016. I think it’s likely Bernie’s actual presidency would have been a major shitshow that made Jimmy Carter’s look pretty solid, but it would have relegated Trump to what he originally wanted to be, a fringe political figure grifting millions from gullible conservatives.
But in that scenario, the Republicans would not have run Trump a second time (and maybe not even the first, because all the populist action would have gone to Bernie). So Bernie would lose in 2020 to a normal (that is, not populist) Republican.
