It is important to keep in mind that the treasury rate drives the rate of most consumer credit. If it gets more expensive for the US to borrow due to debt load, consumer credit will stay or get more expensive. This will, very likely, slow the economy due to increased cost of mortgages, auto loans, and unsecured credit.
Americans can get a preview of what happens when fiscal irresponsibility spooks markets and forces a rate rise by looking at the short-lived Liz Truss administration.
Definitely, if we could refinance at a 1-2% lower rate it would save us up to $1k/mo which we could spend or save (likely we’d just take that money and pay down the loan faster or invest it though, but most people would probably spend it on making their lives better).
> If it gets more expensive for the US to borrow due to debt load, consumer credit will stay or get more expensive. This will, very likely, slow the economy due to increased cost of mortgages, auto loans, and unsecured credit.
Probably, but for sobering reasons, maybe less so than in the past, because because 50% of US consumer spending is by the top 10%, and the top 10% is far less dependent on credit for their spending.
A society where there is a more balanced distribution of spending power would be more affected by a consumer credit collapse, but the treasuries of such a society might be more desirable anyways.
The top 10% don't hold their money in liquid assets. Most of the time they get loans and use their non-liquid assets as collateral. They just don't have money laying around.
Source? The top decile of the US income distribution starts at $170000/yr.
The top decile of the wealth distribution is around $1M net worth.
The people doing the borrow-for-spending-against-non-housing-assets-as-collateral are beyond the top .01%. While they are also spending whales, they are able to negotiate far more favorable rates than the rest of the top 10%, whose spending is mostly income-driven.
The rate that most directly affects consumer-facing debt rates is the Fed’s target rate, which is manually set. To some extent it even influences short-term Treasury rates. This rate is managed to deliver the Fed’s dual mandate of full employment and low inflation.
Day gig is at a firm that extends consumer credit, so I keep an eye on cost of capital tracking, monitoring the spread, etc. Any debt packaged and sold into debt markets (asset backed securities) competes against treasuries from a yield (and risk premium pricing) spread perspective. Mortgages, auto loans, some credit card books, etc.
When the Fed cuts rates, your deposit account provider is going to start cutting your interest rate paid right away, but they’re going to maintain their credit rate pricing as long as possible (considering competition from other lenders) to maintain their spread and profit as long as possible. You see this with credit card interest rates, for example.
TLDR 10Y treasury sets the rate floor, broadly speaking.
