> That evidence would not prove what I said because as you stated, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
That's my point. The tiny number of people you can identify just got lucky.
> The smartest people understand this and they can accurately predict his moves.
No they can't. You can't predict the behavior of someone who isn't sane, as you put it. Their behavior is random and impulsive, not predictable.
People who predicted tariffs at these levels aren't smarter. Just "lucky". Or maybe not even, since during our exchange, Trump has suddenly and unpredictably rolled back most of the tariffs...
> That's my point. The tiny number of people you can identify just got lucky.
Conway is rare because he's been right for the longest. If you're right for a decade it's not luck; you've built a better model of reality.
The people who clued him in where psychologists who recognized Trump was a malignant narcissist in 2015. People like Elizabeth Mika predicted the insurrection 5 years before it happened, but she faced derision in her field for calling Trump's malignancy out. But it turned out her model of his psyche was the most accurate, and continues to be.
> You can't predict the behavior of someone who isn't sane, as you put it.
Yes actually you can, you have a bad model for how insane people behave. And that's why you're bewildered and others are not. Insane behavior is not always random, Trump actually telegraphs and announces his moves. He often says exactly what he's going to do, and then follows through.
He's insane because he lives in an irrational world of his own creation, but the world still has rules. The rules do not follow logic but are more along the lines of "I'm always right". That's not rational, it's not sane, but it's predictable. You just have to learn how to think like him.
> People who predicted tariffs at these levels aren't smarter. Just "lucky". Or maybe not even, since during our exchange, Trump has suddenly and unpredictably rolled back most of the tariffs...
Not unpredictably, he had already done it before with Mexico and Canada.
That's my point. The tiny number of people you can identify just got lucky.
> The smartest people understand this and they can accurately predict his moves.
No they can't. You can't predict the behavior of someone who isn't sane, as you put it. Their behavior is random and impulsive, not predictable.
People who predicted tariffs at these levels aren't smarter. Just "lucky". Or maybe not even, since during our exchange, Trump has suddenly and unpredictably rolled back most of the tariffs...