We'll also see how successful they are. My guess is not very.
Right now they have customers who do stuff like buy CS Design licenses for every computer in their organization because a few people wanted it. If customers like that jump on SaaS options while normal folks do the math (hmm after eighteen months am I ahead or not?) it's a net loss.
Edit: after posting I realized my reading comprehension needed some work - I'd misread who was getting the net loss. That said, it remains to be seen if adding palatable SaaS pricing will help or hurt.
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These SaaS options aren't necessarily the net loss you describe.
I don't mean this to sound like an ad for Adobe's subscription model, but as someone who's used a lot of their products for over a decade, it's hands-down the best way for companies to get access.
In Adobe's case, per-app pricing is really there to set value for the Creative Suite bundles, which in turn set the value for subscriptions.
Let's say I need Photoshop. I have 3 primary options:
- Buy Photoshop CS6 for $700 right now. It's on a 2 year release cycle, and was recently updated, so that's a solid 2 years of guilt-free use until the next rev.
- Buy a CS bundle - eg Design & Web Premium for $1,900. Includes Photoshop Extended, Illustrator, InDesign, Acrobat, Flash, and Fireworks.
- Subscribe at $50/mo for 1 year ($75/mo w/ no commitment). Gets everything above, plus Premiere Pro, After Effects, et al.
If I buy the bundle, that's a $4150 value for a mere $1200 more than Photoshop by itself. This is why the bundles have always sold so well.
If I subscribe for 2 years, it's $500 more than Photoshop by itself, and $700 cheaper than buying a standard CS bundle. Also, I get the latest version of every Adobe tool for the duration, so if different people in the org have different needs I don't need to care.
Right, SaaS (from folks like Adobe) is actually downward pressure on software prices. If they switch to a pure SaaS model (which some companies have sporadically attempted to do) they simply bleed customers AND lose revenue from the ones they keep.
I think Adobe will make a killing on the new subscription pricing. I think the customers with volume licenses will most likely still buy them because a) it will still be cheaper to buy outright when you know you will need a license for hundreds of seats and also b) because IT departments will continue to hate dealing with Adobe's activation process, which a volume license makes much simpler.
Meanwhile all the small shops who could not afford to buy licenses just to equip the 3 freelancers for a month will suddenly be able to justify the small cost of a month's subscription. I almost expect them to roll it into each job's billings, whereas previously they would either use a hooky copy or suffer the pain of juggling licenses and old software.
There are a lot of small shops using hooky Adobe software.
Right now they have customers who do stuff like buy CS Design licenses for every computer in their organization because a few people wanted it. If customers like that jump on SaaS options while normal folks do the math (hmm after eighteen months am I ahead or not?) it's a net loss.