Leaving aside the “AGI on paper” point a sibling correctly made, your point shares the same basic structure as noting that any VC investment is a terrible deal if you only 2x your valuation. You might get $0 if there is a multiple on the liquidation preference!
OpenAI are clearly going for the BHAG. You may or may not believe in AGI-soon but they do, and are all in on this bet. So they simply don’t care about the failure case (ie no AGI in the timeframe that they can maintain runway).
OpenAI are clearly going for the BHAG. You may or may not believe in AGI-soon but they do, and are all in on this bet. So they simply don’t care about the failure case (ie no AGI in the timeframe that they can maintain runway).