It’s far beyond current Russian capabilities, just like NATO does not have capabilities to start and win an offensive war against Russia.
The 2022 invasion was also far beyond Russia's capabilities, yet its regime took that action anyway.
Based on its recent behavior -- there's no reason to believe that the current regime in Moscow will in general act rationally. And every reason to believe it will not.
They fight for a certain vision of ethnic state that was not even shared by majority of its population before 2014.
You are greatly mistaken in this assessment. Talk to any Ukrainian. They may have different opinions about the 2019 Language Law for example. But none of that stuff has anything to do with the current war, or why they are fighting. The just want their perpetual occupier to leave, and to leave them alone, once and for all.
> The 2022 invasion was also far beyond Russia's capabilities, yet its regime took that action anyway.
That decision was based on bad intelligence. Not comparable to situation with NATO which is well-studied by Russian analysts.
> The just want their perpetual occupier to leave
If that was that simple they could implement Russian vision of Minsk agreements or accept non-alignment and the war would stop. But they are fighting for freedom of choosing a specific vision for their country. And that’s a different narrative.
If that was that simple they could implement Russian vision of Minsk agreements or accept non-alignment and the war would stop.
Alas, that seems very doubtful. By all indications, Putin is going to demand not just non-alignment, but permanent cessation of sovereignty on the territories he's currently sitting on.
The 2022 invasion was also far beyond Russia's capabilities, yet its regime took that action anyway.
Based on its recent behavior -- there's no reason to believe that the current regime in Moscow will in general act rationally. And every reason to believe it will not.
They fight for a certain vision of ethnic state that was not even shared by majority of its population before 2014.
You are greatly mistaken in this assessment. Talk to any Ukrainian. They may have different opinions about the 2019 Language Law for example. But none of that stuff has anything to do with the current war, or why they are fighting. The just want their perpetual occupier to leave, and to leave them alone, once and for all.
It's really extremely, extremely simple.