Thanks for clarifying. That line of thinking doesnt mean that a discovery planform can't exist. Even if one grants that gambling is more profitable than prediction, markets segment, saturate, and specialize all the time.
> Even if one grants that gambling is more profitable than prediction, markets segment, saturate, and specialize all the time
It's difficult to see the niche for the academic market.
More profit to the gambling platforms means more money for R&D, customer service, user retention and marketing. That means more liquidity. Gamblers means dumb money, which in turn attracts the smart money: if you're commissioning private polling to place more informed bets [1], you want to place a big bet against dumb money.
