Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

> Flipside: prediction markets absolutely missed Harris's pick of Walz.

A pick of VP is not easy to model as some sort of stochastic variable from sample data.



Of course, if we want to assess which methodology is more accurate, we'll need more than two cherry-picked examples.

<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42074220>


Ahhh, sorry, somehow I thought you meant the two Vice President candidates as the 'cherries being picked'.

Not the two betting examples.


No, I'm referring to the blinkered focus on two specific instances of prediction.

Again: a systemic review is required, and I've linked some of the extant literature.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: