Caution was always a thing, but societal and peer pressure is much less now.
Look at older Millenial shows like Futurama and Archer. They are hilarious, but they absolutely perpetuate the idea that drinking alcohol is cool and a core part of being an adult.
On the other hand, a Zillenial or Gen Z targeted show like Bojack Horseman, Rick and Morty, or Solar Opposites doesn't show substance abuse in a similar manner - it still makes jokes about it, but also shows the dark side.
In high school getting a fake id to drink some beer, getting laid, or smoking weed or cigarettes with the stoners just isn't a cultural milestone anymore.
It's like what Chef said in South Park - "There's a time and a place for everything, and that's college"
It's more accessible what the negative consequences are. For example, I doubt many people 50 years ago knew what a lung looks like after a lifetime of smoking, or exactly how much it increases your cancer rates. Now everyone's seen the photos even if they aren't a smoker.
When I was growing up in the 1980s in the US, anti-smoking campaigns were everywhere all the time every day: on TV, in magazines, posters, etc. A lung damaged by lifetime smoking was a common visual.
So I don't think that information is much more accessible, broadly speaking, though Internet access has certainly increased the amount of information on the topic that's readily accessible.
The shift in attitude could be owing to other factors, or maybe it just took time for the warnings to sink in, i.e. generationally.
I think the definition of "ruin your life" is different now than it was in the 80s. Stakes are higher for kids now, and one little mistake can put you on the road to the have-nots instead of the haves.
Back when I was in high school, you could make mistakes and still end up successful. You could get a few B's in your grades, you could decide not to do so many sports and extracurriculars, you could get detention, you could even get in light trouble with the police for horsing around--and still make it into a good University and move on to a good career. I know because I made all of those mistakes. Plus, the consequences for being mediocre were not too severe. B students had community college, C and D students had decent jobs at the mill and the factory or could learn a trade, and so on.
Today, the bar for entry into a comfortable, middle class career is so high, that my kid needs to make zero mistakes. She has to get straight As, she has to stay out of any kind of trouble, she has to have the right polished "profile" for all the various career- and life-gatekeepers she will meet and need to pass. And if she doesn't pass the gatekeepers, where is she going to end up? There is no safety net and no real humane jobs left for lower-performers. Life is so much more bifurcated now, the kids know it, and they stress about not making a mis-step.
In the 80s I was competing with my small town. Now, kids are competing with the entire world.
I think you absolutely on to something, but I wonder how much of this a shift in perception vs reality.
I agree the linear progression of school>College>good job seems a lot more cutthroat and inflexible. That said, it seems like there are still lots of alternative paths out there for smart motivated people- they just arent clearly paved.
I have a long time to think about it, but I'm not even sure if I will encourage my kids to go to college, for the reasons you outlined. They may be better off doing work that isnt readily outsourced. Much of this will depend on what the economy looks like in 15 years.
As it stands today, I'd be tempted to give my kid 150k to start a plumbing business instead of paying for college.
It's absolutely a shift in reality. In the past, flunking out of school and working at your local McDonalds wasn't a great life, but you could afford a tiny shithole apartment and buy your weekly beer and hang out with the other people who didn't finish high school and live a meager life and shoot the shit.
Now, housing is way more expensive. Basic things are more expensive. McDonalds hires less and pays less relatively to what they used to.
I just went up state and visited a couple friends who failed to go to college or do anything with their lives. Nearly everyone is gone from the home town, because all the jobs are in cities. Small rural towns are basically empty of younger people. The few jobs that do exist are AWFUL, give you less agency than in the past, have zero upwards mobility because every single company is either a tiny business where the owner is the manager or a giant megacorp that pushes management down from Corporate, and STILL pay less than that burger flipping job did. They are soulless. They have almost no friends, almost no options, almost no money, and the place they live is literally dying around them, because it has been for 40 years.
More women go to college, so more of the people left in tiny rural hometowns are lonely men, who cannot find a partner, because there literally aren't many available.
They look at the next 40 years of their lives and see nothing. There's nothing to hope for. There's nothing to attempt to improve for. There's no chance that someone will offer them a good job, because everything is owned by like six companies.
>As it stands today, I'd be tempted to give my kid 150k to start a plumbing business instead of paying for college.
Guess what, being in the position to give your kid $150k period means they are already near the top of the food chain. The vast majority of Americans growing up can't even come close to that. Having a parent or parents that have that kind of expendable income is already chart topping levels of "Has a support structure they can rely on". None of the kids suffering from "no options" syndrome had that.
> Why do you think the caution is higher? do you have any thoughts on what changed?
In the US, Roe v Wade obviously. In Germany, more and more doctors willing to perform abortions are retiring and less new doctors enter the force [1], leaving pregnant women (or women who think they might get pregnant) pretty much down on their luck.
Seems like sex has been trending down since the 80's or 90's. I dont think it was because teens had premonitions of the 2022 overturn of Roe.
Edit: It seems the correction actually goes the opposite direction. Teen sex is lowest in blue states that are most protective of abortion, and highest in red states. California take the cake with lowest teen sex rate [1]. Correlation obviously isnt causation, but it is interesting to see the clear cultural differences in teen sex.
