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achempion
on July 31, 2024
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Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan elect...
The numbers are definitely sus, but what if they were
52.2543689% 44.2689426% 04.6345625%
How likely is it that you'd get these votes distributions exactly with these exact tails? Compared to all other possibilities?
kadoban
on July 31, 2024
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Basically the same 1/verymany chance, but that doesn't matter. The difference is that there's no particular reason to choose these numbers to start with. There _is_ a reason to choose nice round, but not too round numbers: that's what humans do.
jvanderbot
on July 31, 2024
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The question is "How likely is it that humans would
begin
with those numbers when fudging?" answer is low.
But clean numbers? Much more likely.
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