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You're right.

I'll work on the simpler problem of :) / :( first. I think that can be done with just minimax

And then maybe win chance for each possible state of a purely random game



If it were just solely :) / :( then it is a freshman's exercise in expectiminimax.


it turns out you don't need anything more than minimax for the general case Here's my solution https://github.com/pvillano/probabalistic-tic-tac-toe


I think this fails to take into account that your opponent can also roll 'meh', making it your turn again.




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