That sounds about right. It wasn't a massive naval deployment that concerned me at the time, it was a naval movement at all in coordination of the troop deployment. Honestly, a huge naval movement would have looked more like sabre rattling as they really shouldn't have needed a massive naval force to do what they wanted to do (assuming that was a blitz on Kiev).

Anyway, I just happened to be right once among the countless times I have been wrong about similar situations. My main surprise is that anyone considered the idea of an invasion impossible once blood was being delivered to the line.