Reasonable suspicion without evidence is how I’d label it. It would fit with their other actions.

The fact that they stopped multiple breach attempts throughout the years is a pretty clear evidence that it doesn't fit their track record at all.

Now whether they decided to use this as a good excuse after the fact to perform ethnic cleansing or they are driven by revenge or some misguided attempt to achieve a sense of security is a different story - but the events of October 7th are 100% clear incompetence and negligence.