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The situation seems to be quite different at private schools. Here's a graph of Stanford tuition from 1920 to 2011, plotted on a log scale:

http://imgur.com/dGiSi

I've put a linear regression line on top. It's a pretty good fit.

I can't find the data now to do a plot for it, but I saw similar numbers for Harvard from around 1970 to present, and they similarly showed a pretty steady growth.

Public schools are much more variable, I believe, because they are one of the few state institutions that is allowed and/or required to get a large part of its budget from fees to its users. Thus, when a state has budget trouble there is a tendency to make state colleges and universities raise tuition.

PS: the tuition data I have for Stanford gives the tuition at the start of each decade from 1920 through 1990, then gives yearly data. I probably should have plotted points, not lines.



Stanford is a terrible single data point to use as a representation for "private schools". The amount of fundraising they do tends to approach a billion dollars per year (2009 was a bad year, they only got $640 million that year) and their endowment stands at almost $17 billion dollars.

Having a boatload of super-rich, super-giving alumni is great, and helps keep tuition costs from rising too quickly... but it is not the norm for private schools.




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