203T is underlying value right ? Not the actual options and future value ?

It's notional. The actual quote from the report [1] is

  > Derivative notional amounts decreased in the third quarter of 2023 by $17.7 trillion, or 8.0 percent, to $204.2 trillion.

The vast majority of all these derivatives are collateralized, and the collateral is updated daily. They are also subject to some form of extra collateral called (improperly) "initial margin", so in case one bank goes down for some reason, it doesn't take its counterparties with it.

[1] https://www.occ.gov/publications-and-resources/publications/...

The underlying value has been spoken for a long time ago.

The derivatives are the bets being placed on the performance of that (remaining) underlying value.

Kind of like private gamblers on a horse race putting up more money amongst themselves than the entire prize package for the actual participants in the race.

These are two completely separate groups anyway.

It could be worse, it could be a rat race.

Oh, wait . . .

everything bubble except gold , oil, and other commodities. Or treasuries. Right now the gains seem concentrated in AI and chips. Apple and Tesla have not participated at all this year.

> everything bubble except gold , oil, and other commodities

and wages for everyday working joes

but Nvidia tho

i answered your question at some length on the other thread in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39469828

i think you will find the answer extremely informative; it should change your picture of the world significantly. i'm interested to hear what you think

Are financial markets (of all varieties) required to provide timely, structured reporting ? Then could ya throw an A.I. at it all ?

An "everything bubble" is called inflation.

Everyone talks about inflation. We need a new term.

You don't need new terms to keep talking about the same thing, this isn't javascript or databases.

> this isn't javascript

Made my day. Much love

House of cards.