People only focus on the ICE engine itself as being the need to go to the service, but there's other shit that can go wrong in a car, no matter if it's ICE or EV, like window lifters, locks, tailgate, bumper changes, door changes, mirrors, suspension, heated $WHATEVER, one of the dozens of ECUs or sensors getting faulty, plus anything damaged from the usual fender bender or curb mounting. You'll still need to go to a service for those.
And ICE cars will not magically disappear overnight off the roads though. Service centers still have at least 20+ years of work for them of ICE + EV combined. It should be enough to plan your business accordingly like selling it or pivoting to something else if you think the EV future is too low margin for that business.
The wear items you mentioned are going to be rare occurrences, ie once every 50/100k miles.
Versus oil changes get customers in the shop every 5-10k miles / 1 year; Coolant changes every 2-5 years. The best analog is tire changes on Evs.
Yes, collision shops will still be needed, but are rarely a direct dealer service (the majority of dealers do not have paint shops).
The top mechanical issues; Engines (from oil change negligence), and transmissions will no longer exist in the drivetrain. (Sensor failure will be relatively minimal as no sensors are exposed to constant 200 degree heat or oil or gasoline).
From a duration perspective; dealers may support 100k mile, 10 year warranties, but when we see 50% EV adoption, it will be like finding obsolete ford parts from the 50s in no time for 10+ year old vehicles.
And ICE cars will not magically disappear overnight off the roads though. Service centers still have at least 20+ years of work for them of ICE + EV combined. It should be enough to plan your business accordingly like selling it or pivoting to something else if you think the EV future is too low margin for that business.