> “If Bob is guilty of this robbery, what are the chances we'd find his fingerprints at the crime scene?”
It's more like saying "the chance of these fingerprints being mistaken for Bob's are 1 in 100000. Therefore there's a 99999 in 100000 Bob is guilty of this robbery.
Does Bob have a motive? Means? A history of crime? Is there evidence he was in the area? Could he have been in the house for another reason?
And the biggie: did he only come under suspicion after police trawled through a database of 100000 fingerprints and matched the prints to Bob? Because you should expect a false positive in a database of that size.
It's more like saying "the chance of these fingerprints being mistaken for Bob's are 1 in 100000. Therefore there's a 99999 in 100000 Bob is guilty of this robbery.
Does Bob have a motive? Means? A history of crime? Is there evidence he was in the area? Could he have been in the house for another reason?
And the biggie: did he only come under suspicion after police trawled through a database of 100000 fingerprints and matched the prints to Bob? Because you should expect a false positive in a database of that size.