The one you linked is about retraction, not replication. Interestingly, they're both near 25%, which seems kinda contradictory. The retraction one has a deadline of Jan 1, 2024, but the replication one is Jan 1, 2025.
There's also this other retraction one with a later deadline of Jan 1, 2025: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-first-roomtemperature...
So the market leans toward the idea that it won't be replicated, and it will be retracted in 2024 (or in 2023 but less likely).
The one you linked is about retraction, not replication. Interestingly, they're both near 25%, which seems kinda contradictory. The retraction one has a deadline of Jan 1, 2024, but the replication one is Jan 1, 2025.
There's also this other retraction one with a later deadline of Jan 1, 2025: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-first-roomtemperature...
So the market leans toward the idea that it won't be replicated, and it will be retracted in 2024 (or in 2023 but less likely).