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> "laws banning gasoline cars by 2035 are as useful as laws banning flip phones by 2015 would have been."

These laws serve to create certainty around boardroom tables, which helps speed up investment decisions. For an automotive industry executive, it's easier to commit billions to convert your factories to producing EVs when you're not bothered by nagging "but what if there is still demand for combustion vehicles in the 2030s?" questions.



The executives get 90%+ of their compensation before 2035. So they care very little about the health of the company in 2035. What this means in practice is that companies like GM will say "We are going electric very soon" but not actually accomplish much. Here is an article from 2012. You can find very similar ones every 2 years since then. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-gm-evs/gm-aims-to-build-5...


That’s not how careers work. You don’t get promoted by saying “I’ll do something very soon about that” and doing nothing. You get promoted by having something interesting to show to your bosses who can then look good to their bosses. With a clear objective set preparing to meet it is a clear way of getting promoted. The issue will be more that people prefer getting promoted by doing a bunch of stuff that looks like it’ll get you over the line, but often isn’t. I’m sure we will make a lot of progress by 2035, but it won’t be anywhere near “done”


The laws aren't just a single cliff-edge, but set targets to be achieved along the way. For example, Europe demands zero emissions by 2035, but also requires each automaker to reduce emissions by 55% between 2021 and 2030. In practice, that means the majority of vehicles sold will need to be electric by 2030. That means every car company needs to be taking action now to avoid facing billions in fines in coming years.




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