This whole thing is so bizarre. It is almost like Brian Armstrong or Jesse Powell exit scamming their respective exchanges, or perhaps my impression of SBF has been completely wrong. If SBF does intend to be a fugitive, does he really think this is going to end up OK for him?
> If SBF does intend to be a fugitive, does he really think this is going to end up OK for him?
Honestly, if he manages to sneak to Laos or the Maldives, even with a mere $100m or so? Yeah he'd most likely be fine, especially if he lays low. A similar example at smaller scale is Sam Jain[0] who ran eFront in the early 00s; he defrauded businesses of tens of millions and ran off somewhere. He's been a fugitive for over a decade but still has multiple millions of dollars to life off of.
Biggest difference is Jain was mainly defrauding businesses, whereas SBF defrauded billionaires... wherever he goes, I'm sure 24/7 armed security is going to be on his shopping list.
He really thought FTX US was solvent less than 24 hours before declaring bankruptcy. Either he’s a fraud or he’s clueless. Either way, he’s not thinking, let alone whether he’ll end up ok.
I’m struggling to phrase this in a high brow way, but being the son of powerful parents might be a factor too. It’s possible that this is the first time in his life that anyone is telling him not to do X for an X he really wanted to do.
Him being the second largest donor to the Democratic Party will really test the rule of law. Does it apply to the powerful? We’ll see.
> Him being the second largest donor to the Democratic Party will really test the rule of law. Does it apply to the powerful? We’ll see.
Bernie Madoff was a large donor to the Democrats and it didn't help him one bit. I see no reason to believe that the situation will be any different regarding SBF, if he is indeed culpable.
While I also caught that wording mistake, the checksum in the next sentence--which includes "either he's a fraud"--indicates sillysaurusx does understand this and simply worded that first sentence awkwardly (so there's no need to get quite so intense).
I think jail is the most secure place to him, IMHO if he doesn't end up in jail someone will kill him, he screwed good and bad actors. It is not like Madoff screwing people who will not retaliate at the violent level.
The difference is that Epstein had dirt on them, some of which is also in a few little black books that the FBI has probably lost from their evidence locker.
Epstein and Maxwell are the only human traffickers ever to be convicted without anyone in the DoJ even questioning who they trafficked children to.
Epstein had every reason in the world to kill himself. But yes, in general, prison is not a secure place if there are people that want you dead. You're around plenty of people who wouldn't blink at stabbing you if it means they'll get some money in their commissary account or if a gang compels them to do it.
Interesting to discuss this. Assuming Epstein was killed, I think Epstein case is special for his strong connections with the US power AND knowledge about these people and organizations. I don't it is easy to work at the jail level (without leaving tracks) if you are not a US insider. I see the SBF case different: he has screwed people around the globe with multiple different ethics about how to solve the issue. I see his position comparable with Salman Rushdie situation but not related with religion.
BTW, where can someone learn about the Epstein story? In the surface it seems a very rare character, for me, at least, it is difficult to connect the pederastian and procurer with someone who made a lot of money from other unknown activities. It seems these two, are separate things and it is not clear why he don't just pursued one of these activities and why he and Maxwell were abusing people at the same time instead of separating their business with their personal sexual choices. Top drug dealers see drugs as a business because having an addiction will ruin it.
How many homicides happen in West Palm Beach or San Mateo?
People who think this guy won't come out still a millionaire out of this are delusional. As I said enough money to have a mansion in West Palm Beach or San Mateo, he'd only have to party at home for a while.
Which prison gang would take him in, though? Most prison gangs are race/ethnicity based and I don't think the Aryan Brotherhood would be too keen to take in a Jew who donated billions to leftist political causes.
The U.S. law enforcement really starts the Consequence Train up if the wrong people get screwed. Ironically, the billionaires who seek justice for their scammers are the ones who also spend a ton of money gutting the government of its power of prosecution and oversight.
He’s probably in the panic/negotiation phase of it all. He knows he’s cooked but possibly he can escape with enough money to pay the right people in the right places what they need to secure passage for himself.
