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It just shows that predicting the future is really difficult. It's also not logical why HN being wrong in one case means it will be wrong in another.


It shows that there is groupthink at play and that the overall HN commentary on subjects, even when they should know better (tech), is not particularly correct.

Being wrong once is one thing, but HN commentary seems consistently wrong on a whole litany of topics. The biggest source of bad hot takes seems to be something new/different. HN seems to be consistently conservative.

It’s a shame because I used to think that i would gain some insight on future trends from the fact that a lot of the people who comment here are in tech, but now I’m not so convinced.




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