Deglobalization -- In the US, we're about to be forced to rebuild all the manufacturing we outsourced since the 1970s. It's not going to go well for thos countries dependent on imported food or energy.
It's possible a billion people will face famine in the next year or two as a result of the loss of grain from Russia and Ukraine, along with the loss of Fertilizers (or being priced out of them)
Energy Blindness -- We're so used to having free flowing oil cheap enough to burn for energy, it's an assumption built into everything. Unless we plan for the end of easy to reach oil, we could have supply chains collapsing everywhere.
> Deglobalization -- In the US, we're about to be forced to rebuild all the manufacturing we outsourced since the 1970s. It's not going to go well for those countries dependent on imported food or energy
Hogwash. Globalization is good, Globalization is here to stay. Whatever is the current location causing issues with Globalization will simply be routed around. There are plenty of countries that would love to be part of the global supply chain with.
The only way any manufacturing is coming back to the rich industrialized countries is that it involves a lot of really good robots. Which is also good.
> It's possible a billion people will face famine in the next year or two as a result of the loss of grain from Russia and Ukraine, along with the loss of Fertilizers (or being priced out of them)
Again, hogwash. The market will force diets to change and producers will start producing more. Fertilizer production could be an issue but again, diets and markets will adjust.
> Energy Blindness -- We're so used to having free flowing oil cheap enough to burn for energy, it's an assumption built into everything. Unless we plan for the end of easy to reach oil, we could have supply chains collapsing everywhere.
A known issue that will not happen overnight. The world is racing toward non-oil based energy, so I don't see this being an issue. Don't get me wrong, this one I actually agree with, but it won't happen overnight. The world/markets will adapt.
You mention markets will adopt as response. To a degree yes and probably richer countries, but I don’t believe poorer countries will.
Let’s take East Africa as example: If your boat full of corn doesn’t arrive it does not arrive, full stop. There is little to adjust. Same goes with medication. We often think in front of our doors, but if large, economically important countries start to struggle with food or medicine , there will be an impact on others as well.
I don’t think the current state of globalisation can last. It won’t be complete deglobalisation either.
I think we’d see the world market divided in two. It’s already starting with semi conductors (chip 4 alliance).
For some key industries US will also bring some of the manufacturing in house instead of only relying on allies. Again you are already seeing this with semi conductors: US is bringing manufacturing to its own soil and South Korea has already made some raw material processing domestic instead of relying on cheaper global market.
Energy is one thing, but I don't see any good replacements for plastics, especially medical grade plastic. We rely on oil for far more than just energy.
"Next year or two" is extremely unlikely. The US is absolutely no going to switch back to a manufacturing base. It's only attempting to gain leverage against adversaries when it comes to critical supply chain components. China is all but guaranteed to see slowing growth compared to the past 40 years simply because there aren't enough farmers left to exploit for cheap labor and living standards are already so much higher. They'll be in for mild economic winter then emerge just fine. Famine seems incredibly unlikely anywhere in the world.
But critical supply chain components are more frequent than people would like to think. In a period where sea freight becomes less stable, it's not a question of 'what goods can we not live without' but 'what goods can we not live without if delivery isn't stable and regular'?
The U.S. is already losing sea hegemony. This was a key piece that enabled globalization to begin with.
Do you have examples of freight becoming unstable due to military actions and not supply constraints? The de globalization thesis makes sense but I don’t see examples of regional powers flexing their muscles causing supply chain problems, at least not publicly.
I suppose Russia is an obvious example in the EU but are their other examples?
The answer to 'what goods can we not live without if delivery isn't stable and regular' is that you go back to the traditional approach which was used for centuries when delivery wasn't stable and regular: simply keep large inventories of the goods. [In recent decades business switched to Just In Time, but this has been shown not to work with irregular delivery--so business is going back to the traditional methods.]
I mean, I think it'd be nice, but in the US our leaders are so fucking corrupt and owned by business interests that I don't see it happening until at least all the boomers/Gen Xers die off.
Is globalization really the result of corrupt leaders though, or a shift in corporate practice to accommodate the rising demands of consumers? It seems like no amount of corruption really matters as long as we're drinking lattes and eating avocado every day.
It's cyclical because demand is induced through media propaganda. In turn US media is owned by oligarchs, which in turn have a stake in companies that benefit from rising demands of consumers.
I think your understanding of how consumers come to the decisions they do is sorely lacking in terms of stripping agency from the people that consume. We're not blank slate robots.
So much of what people purchase is based on what will maintain or elevate their social standing within their social circle. Media reinforces these stereotypes by showing idealized applications of products. This affects people through subliminal messaging. It works. Subliminal messages exert long-term effects on decision-making. You can freely read the paper by the same name.
OTOH demand only rose because of corporate advertising pushing a consumerist culture. They made the demand. People didn't want corn flakes before they existed. Things are made then marketed not the other way around.
Of course when they were young, the Boomers said that about all the people in power at that time. Big government power attracts corruptible people. This doesn't change in a generation. It probably doesn't change ever.
unlikely we'll rebuild locally. We will outsource it to a friendlier country with cheap labor. In 50 yrs the cycle will repeat. (Probably South America.)
Colombia has one of the biggest ports in the Gulf. With the huge flight of people out of Venezuela into colombia, I foresee labor being very cheap there and logistics to southern states very cheap.
The issue is that this goes both ways. The eu is regularly imposing harsh rules on american tech. With deglobalisation there will be job losses as there will be fewer open markets.
It's possible a billion people will face famine in the next year or two as a result of the loss of grain from Russia and Ukraine, along with the loss of Fertilizers (or being priced out of them)
Energy Blindness -- We're so used to having free flowing oil cheap enough to burn for energy, it's an assumption built into everything. Unless we plan for the end of easy to reach oil, we could have supply chains collapsing everywhere.