But we didn’t blow ourselves back to the stone age in the 50s and 60s. This fate turned out to be not quite as inevitable as “A Canticle” would seem to suggest.
Yet evidence pointing to this outcome was all around us during the Cold War, right up to the late 1980s. Development of new and more potent weapons. Serious accidents or near accidents - one crazy one I remember hearing about was one side almost launching a retaliatory barrage when the radar gave a false positive for an incoming attack. Proxy wars. Opaque succession plans in the USSR, China, North Korea, and Cuba. Sabre-rattling and standoffs all over the world.
In elementary school in the 1970s we didn't have to do "Duck and Cover" but we did have drills involving classes marching in a line down to the basement which had signs marking it as a "Fallout Shelter." Sometimes I still see them. (History: https://www.wgbh.org/news/2018/01/23/local-news/what-do-thos...)
When I got a little older, I can't tell you how unsettling it was to see serious looking people talking on the nightly news about some incident on the North Korean border, or a power struggle in Moscow after Brezhnev died, or how many thousands of ICBMs each side had pointing at each other. How fucked up is it that 15 year old me understood concepts like MIRV (https://armscontrolcenter.org/multiple-independently-targeta...) or the U.S. maintaining a bunch of B-52s loaded with nukes in the air at all times?
The news we saw and read was reinforced through pop culture that drove home the idea that we would blow ourselves to bits. In high school in the mid-1980s we were assigned Canticle as well as Neville Shute's On The Beach, which follows a similarly depressing narrative (northern hemisphere covered by radiation, southern slowly dying off, what people do as the inevitable gets closer). Red Dawn. Firefox. Reruns of Dr. Strangelove. Or the TV series The Day After.
We couldn't believe it when crowds climbed on the Berlin Wall in November 1989. That's when people were able to rub their eyes and think just maybe we weren't going to kill ourselves.
In 1983, I was watching TV after my parents had gone off to bed. The Emergency Warning System came on, and I said "Hey, it's the Emergency Warning System!" I have never seen my father move that fast. That's the best measure I have of how deep the fear of nuclear war was.
(It turned out to be a dam failure caused by flooding, and they were trying to warn everyone downstream to get out now. Nothing to do with nuclear war.)
Don't they do this more like yearly? And they don't usually breach airspace generally considered sovereign, though they might fly into airspace the target country itself believes sovereign. AFAIU, these flights are similar to the yearly runs the U.S. Navy makes through some disputed territorial waters; that is, principally intended to preserve normative freedom of movement rights, albeit in a military context obviously serving strategic security interests.
> F-22 Raptors from the North American Aerospace Defense Command, or NORAD, intercepted a group of Russian aircraft in international airspace near Alaska Monday night.
> In a series of tweets early Tuesday morning, NORAD said the Raptors intercepted a pair of Russian Tu-95 “Bear” bombers escorted by Su-35 fighters. NORAD said it also identified a Russian A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft supporting the other Russian planes that “loitered” in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone and came within 30 nautical miles of Alaska’s shore.
> NORAD said that all Russian aircraft remained in international airspace and at no time entered U.S. or Canadian airspace.
> The U.S. military performed two intercepts of Russians aircraft, though they never entered U.S. airspace, according to a U.S. military official.
> In Alaska, F-22s took off to identify and track two TU-95 Bear bombers near the Southern coast. The two bombers were followed until they turned around.
> [...]
> Similarly off the coast of California, F-15s tracked two other TU-95s that had been detected near the coast of San Francisco. The incident in California was a rarity, because Russian forces don’t generally travel that far South. However, this was reminiscent of a similar flight Russia performed off the West coast on July 4 three years prior.
If anything, their frequency is less than yearly, at least off the U.S. coast, especially before 2015 (and within the range of internet memory). They seem far more common (and aggressive) in Europe, which I expected. And I can't find one example where the Russian aircraft breached U.S. territorial airspace. Sincere question: can you provide examples?
> The air-defense identification zone, almost completely over water, extends 12 miles past the perimeter of the United States. Most nations have similar areas.
> However, no Russian military planes have been flying into that zone, said Maj. Allen Herritage, a spokesman for the Alaska region of the North American Aerospace Defense Command, at Elmendorf Air Force Base near Anchorage.
> “To be very clear, there has not been any incursion in U.S. airspace in recent years,” Herritage said.
> What Palin might have been referring to was a buffer zone of airspace that extends beyond the 12-mile strip. Although not recognized internationally as the United States’ to protect, the military watches it.
> That zone is where there has been increased Russian bomber exercises, about 20 in the past two years. When Russian bombers enter that expanded area, sometimes called the outer air-defense identification zone by the military, U.S. or Canadian fighter jets are dispatched to check them, Herritage said.
1) "The United States flew nuclear armed bombers to the borders of the USSR 24 hours a day."
That is true. One of the linked-to examples is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Giant_Lance "These bombers were to patrol the Northern polar ice caps to survey the frozen terrain, whilst armed with nuclear weaponry.[4][6][2] The patrols consisted of eighteen-hour long vigils, which were executed with the intention of appearing as suspicious movements from the US."
2) Do Russian planes military fly close to the US on a more than yearly occurrence?
For Russia, https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-says-fighter-intercepted-u-s-... "Russia says a fighter jet intercepted two U.S. military surveillance planes in the Black Sea" and of course there are currently a lot of NATO surveillance flights watching the Russian border now.
> 1) the Russians run bombers to the airspace of Alaska all the time. 2) US jets intercept and turn them around. 3) It's the expensive version of the border crossings between India & Pakistan
If we're charitable, then in isolation #1 is reasonable. But not so much in the context of #2 and #3. Note that actual cross-border incursions are very common between India & Pakistan. As well as between India and China, for that matter, and a host of other country pairings. Moreover, the phrasing "turn them around" reflects connotations similar to phrasing like "escort", commonly used in popular news reports. But nobody is actually escorting here; that's propaganda. U.S. fighters aren't "escorting" Russian bombers any more than the Chinese "escort" U.S. SIGINT flights or naval water transits; the planes and ships continue on their same, planned courses--excepting occasional aggressive maneuvers were the Chinese behave like their going to ram a plane or ship.
AFAICT, no territorial violations are happening here, which IMO is what was implied. Moreover, especially during the Cold War, the U.S. had a long and sorted history of actual incursions into Russian and Soviet airspace; incursions far more numerous and serious than what the U.S. experienced.
I took umbrage with the claims because, while I believe as a general matter Russia is a far more prolific violator of international norms, including territorial incursions, when it comes to their dealings with the U.S. in this regard they've actually been sticklers for obeying boundaries, notwithstanding characterizations to the contrary. And at least since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. has likewise been rather good about that as well. And these characterizations matter because they're at the center of Russian accusations regarding how the U.S. and NATO has treated Russian security interests.
Regarding this specific point:
> > 4) Are any of these to preserve "normative freedom of movement rights"?
> No.
I disagree. When Russia sends bombers toward the U.S., they're generally going to deliberately penetrate the "buffer zone", just like U.S. ships and planes will deliberately penetrate China's self-defined buffer zones. To do otherwise would be to risk legitimizing claims about the nature of those buffer zones. In other words, part of the exercise is to maintain the normalcy of the internationally recognized, more circumscribed sovereign claims.
I do concede that these flights by Russia happen far more often than once a year. I've been following foreign affairs for over 20 years and have known about these practices, but clearly judging their frequency by the frequency of reporting is especially error prone.
You're right. The examples I mention are not like the border crossings between India & Pakistan.
> they're generally going to deliberately penetrate the "buffer zone",
Yes. My comment concerned your earlier use of principally in "principally intended to preserve normative freedom of movement rights."
I believe they are principally done as surveillance flights, with freedom of movement rights as an important but secondary role.
Otherwise you could use something cheaper than a fully-crewed EP-3.
Besides planes, see "Soviet fishing trawlers" (" After the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Joint Chiefs of Staff authorized a counter AGI program for United States destroyers to come alongside the AGIs to push against them, foul their screws with steel nets, and focus high power electromagnetic transmitters to burn out the amplifying circuitry of their electronic sensors." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spy_ship ).
Now that you two have finished, recall that per HN we are intended to grant the best interpretation of a statement and not the worst.
My comment stands and the misinterpretation has at least born fruit.
The 'border crossings' i mentioned might have been better referred to as 'border stations', where rehearsed performance occurs daily between guards. Not referencing physical incursions into disputed territories to maintain claim.
Then no, it's not like an "expensive version of the border crossings between India & Pakistan."
For one, https://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/04/politics/us-f-22-intercep... comments that it could be a "routine" training exercise. ("a senior defense official stressed, last month, that they are "not a concern" and attributed the uptick to a recent lack of available Russian aircraft and need to boost training.")
You thought badcppdev might be nervous about the modern equivalent of high kick marching competitions?
After badcppdev pointed out the US historically flew nuclear armed bombers to the borders of the USSR 24 hours a day? Including with the deliberate goal of escalating the nuclear threat to the Soviet Union, in order to improve America' position at the negotiating table?
Your statement "US jets intercept and turn them around" is incorrect - these flights are not turned around.
"High kick marching competitions" are not training exercises. Nor are they surveillance operations.
That's not even remotely the same as flying multiple bomber missions every single day.
Imagine every time you tuck your children into bed you know that there are nuclear weapons heading towards your home. Hopefully tonight they turn away at the border again.
IIRC it was going on even longer than that, although perhaps on a reduced frequency. My barber worked at an air base in North Dakota late in the Cold War and mentioned something about that.
Yet evidence pointing to this outcome was all around us during the Cold War, right up to the late 1980s. Development of new and more potent weapons. Serious accidents or near accidents - one crazy one I remember hearing about was one side almost launching a retaliatory barrage when the radar gave a false positive for an incoming attack. Proxy wars. Opaque succession plans in the USSR, China, North Korea, and Cuba. Sabre-rattling and standoffs all over the world.
In elementary school in the 1970s we didn't have to do "Duck and Cover" but we did have drills involving classes marching in a line down to the basement which had signs marking it as a "Fallout Shelter." Sometimes I still see them. (History: https://www.wgbh.org/news/2018/01/23/local-news/what-do-thos...)
When I got a little older, I can't tell you how unsettling it was to see serious looking people talking on the nightly news about some incident on the North Korean border, or a power struggle in Moscow after Brezhnev died, or how many thousands of ICBMs each side had pointing at each other. How fucked up is it that 15 year old me understood concepts like MIRV (https://armscontrolcenter.org/multiple-independently-targeta...) or the U.S. maintaining a bunch of B-52s loaded with nukes in the air at all times?
The news we saw and read was reinforced through pop culture that drove home the idea that we would blow ourselves to bits. In high school in the mid-1980s we were assigned Canticle as well as Neville Shute's On The Beach, which follows a similarly depressing narrative (northern hemisphere covered by radiation, southern slowly dying off, what people do as the inevitable gets closer). Red Dawn. Firefox. Reruns of Dr. Strangelove. Or the TV series The Day After.
We couldn't believe it when crowds climbed on the Berlin Wall in November 1989. That's when people were able to rub their eyes and think just maybe we weren't going to kill ourselves.