But if you need information from after 2014 to define the outcome metric that's used to train your model, you're still peeking into the future, even if you've limited yourself to companies that completed the incubator before 2014.
He's relying on "post-incubator early-stage investment and late-stage exit" to train the model. Unless I'm missing something, that information would not have been available at the beginning of 2014, so the model could not have been trained at that time.
In order to say the human investments were predictably bad, we need to specify a time at which all necessary data to train the model was available, and predict from that time point forward only.
He's relying on "post-incubator early-stage investment and late-stage exit" to train the model. Unless I'm missing something, that information would not have been available at the beginning of 2014, so the model could not have been trained at that time.
In order to say the human investments were predictably bad, we need to specify a time at which all necessary data to train the model was available, and predict from that time point forward only.