Also hedge funds have different goals for themselves and their clients. It's not necessarily hard to beat them, the question is whether it's worth your time and if the returns hold up when you trade larger amounts. I daytraded for awhile, got good returns but more traditional work is more rewarding and a better use of time, not to mention less stressful.

Predicting that massive spending will lead to inflation isn't that same as predicting the market itself. There's correlation but It's not 100%.

Paul Krugman amongst others, a novelist predicted that massive spending will not lead to lasting inflation. Many top notch economists said that. If you think you knew better hindsight bias.

You don't get it. If 50% predict a and another 50% predict b and a layman predicts b saying "hey it was so obvious" he is in great error. You that is my friend.

Layman? My degree is literally in economics. And yes it was obvious. Any economist who didn't see it is probably a bought shill.

It's not 50/50. What happened is orthodox economics ie. academic consensus. And Krugman is a shill, FYI.