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Can anyone familiar with the process, explain exactly how these industry lobbyists win these cases? With a 75% of Californians being pro-right to repair, and with bipartisan support - you'd think this would be an easy case to argue.

Do the lobbyists have some incredibly legitimate insider information they share with the senators? Do they just throw cash/donations at them?



> With a 75% of Californians being pro-right to repair, and with bipartisan support - you'd think this would be an easy case to argue

“Bipartisan support“ is, since we are well out of the pre-1990s realignment period, mostly a sign of low political salience, an issue that doesn't have much relevance to voting behavior to most of the public. Breadth (%) of support or opposition is far less important than depth (impact on voting, volunteering, and donating behavior), and this is an issue where the depth of support in the general public is near 0, where the depth of opposition from entrenched industry interests is high.


Part of the problem is that all of our depth in political support gets black-holed into advertising for simple polarizing issues like abortion, guns, and high vs. low taxes. This gets largely negated by the other side advertising for the opposite position, so in the end very little gets done.


Yes, and this is by design. Divide and conquer.


The real issue is actually partisan primaries that push both sides further to the edge.

See what Alaska did recently for an example of how to fix this


I agree with you that it is a problem, but I don't think it's the primaries as much as it is the two-party system. If we are going to have political parties, then they should be allowed some semblance of self-governance. Otherwise, what's the point? There could just be one state controlled party that does everything. The more we control individual parties, the more pointless it is to even have different parties.

Personally, I see political parties as potentially important to a well-functioning democracy. The main problem I think is lack of competition. I would love to see at least a third party, maybe half a dozen or more, emerge in the United States. Obviously people have been trying to make that happen for decades, without success. I wonder what type of solutions there are to increase the number of viable parties? The one that seems most plausible to me is ranked choice voting, for one of the many minor variations of the idea. Are there other things?


> The real issue is actually partisan primaries that push both sides further to the edge.

No, it's not. California has eliminated primaries in the usual sense (what is called a “primary”, outside of Presidential nominations, in California is the first round of a two-round majority-runoff general election where you aren't allowed to win outright on the first ballot even with a clear majority), and yet here we are talking about the effect in California, so partisan primaries can not be the issue. We’ve ruled that out by not having them.

The issue is FPTP single-member district legislative elections, which supports partisan duopoly and narrows the meaningful space of political debate toward a single high-salience axis and issues where splits align well with that axis, marginalizing all other issues. This has been somewhat extensively studied in comparative study of modern representative democratic systems, see, e.g., Lijphart’s Patterns of Democracy.


CA is a one party state, for all practical purposes, however it was accomplished.


> CA is a one party state, for all practical purposes

This is much less true than it seems superficially; its true that the state-level government is dominated by Democrats (including many offices that are nominally nonpartisan), but important local government offices, particularly Sheriffs–which are also nominally nonpartisan–are dominated by Republicans. This was particularly significant during the height of the COVID pandemic, because enforcement of public health orders is, under the State Constitution and laws, almost entirely entrusted to county Sheriffs, and every single county Sheriff in the State publicly announced one form or another of non-enforcement.


If you are a one party state minus Sheriffs then you are a one party state. Covid aside, 95% percent of the government is not law enforcement. And all the prosecutors are dems


> If you are a one party state minus Sheriffs

Which is not what I said, Sheriffs were an example, not an exhaustive list of exceptions.

> 95% percent of the government is not law enforcement.

That’s strange, because law enforcement, corrections, and criminal legal system is about 10% of California’s budget.

> And all the prosecutors are dems

No, they aren’t. Like all local offices, it’s a formally nonpartisan office, but its fairly common for Republicans or (especially in Dem-leaning areas), “independents” who were Republicans before running for the office and whose stances on policy issues are indistinguishable from Republicans to be DA’s, though DA’s are less consistently hard-right than Sheriffs.


>important local government offices, particularly Sheriffs–which are also nominally nonpartisan–are dominated by Republicans

Name any three blue counties with Republican county sheriffs.


This is a good point for other issues as well. Support for legal recreational marijuana nationally has been at a decently strong majority level for a while now, but that hasn't resulted in any action at the federal level. It hasn't even been rescheduled when Democrats hold the presidency, and support within the Democratic party in particular is extremely high. That, too, is an issue of depth. Yeah, most Democrats and even Americans support it at this point, but for most it's not a major issue.

That's part of why it's been so common to pass as a state-level initiative. If you actually get it to a popular vote, it'll pass because people are at least lightly in favor, but legislatures are slow to pass it themselves because it has little impact on their re-election chances.


> Support for legal recreational marijuana nationally has been at a decently strong majority level for a while now, but that hasn't resulted in any action at the federal level.

While it is technically still federally prohibited, and there is some danger of reach-back prosecutions if policy changes, since 2014 state law has effectively controlled because of the enforcement restrictions in the Rohrbacher-Farr Amendment, which has been continuously renewed as part of funding bills, and is a substantive federal action.


You explained very well something that I have struggled to put into words about all these tech bills. Thank you.


This. I wish more polls had an importance/salience correction factor applied. It would significantly tilt most polls.


What would be the best way to gauge that?

My naive take on this would be to have poll questions like:

> Are you in favor of consumers' right to repair? ...How strong is your position? (1–5)

Of course this is vulnerable to strategic answering, where people just slam on ‘5’ for each question. Like how star ratings are inflated on Amazon.

My next strategy would be pairwise contests. So:

> Alice supports right-to-repair (RTR) and raising property taxes. Bob is opposed to RTR and wants to lower property taxes. Who would you vote for?

> Carol supports RTR and applying the death penalty to a wider range of felonies. David opposes RTR and wants to eliminate capital punishment altogether. Who would you vote for?

But too much of that and you'd start to lose people. How many questions can you pose before you're only getting answers from serial poll-takers?


Salience is pretty hard to measure by means other than substantive political behavior.


It's an open secret in politics that government jobs are a revolving door to/from industry.

Corporate executives frequently go in to politics, and when politicians retire they often get cushy, high paying jobs at the very corporations they benefited while in office.

They don't have to be outright bribed while in office (though it's not unknown for that to happen), but they know they'll be handsomely rewarded once they leave.

That's not to mention them or their family members investing in companies they know will benefit from their actions while in office.


This is a tired argument. Of course people who have industry experience will continue to work in that industry. And if the chance of being rewarded with a "cushy" job after leaving office is so compelling then why are so few people interested in becoming politicians?


> if the chance of being rewarded with a "cushy" job after leaving office is so compelling then why are so few people interested in becoming politicians?

Becoming a politician is a bit like becoming a musician: Spend the best years of your life 'putting your time in' with a 98% chance you'll never make it big. Only the 2% that made it big get offered those $500k/year sinecures.

If you're already in the powerful 2% you've probably already compromised on your principles many times to get there, so the $500k/year for compromising them a little more is practically free money.

If you're entering politics, though? As you've only got a 2% chance of making the $500k, the expected value is only $10k. Not much of a motivation.


It's less of an argument and more a list of facts, isn't it?

> then why are so few people interested in becoming politicians?

Obviously because they can't afford to because they actually have to work.


It's not clear to me that the overlap between corporate and political career paths really has any meaningful impact on the way politicians vote on individual bills, so I wouldn't call that a fact


>why are so few people interested in becoming politicians?

Uh... what? There's a shortage of politicians nowhere, lol.


There might technically be enough politicians to fill all available positions, but there clearly aren’t enough for a competitive and diverse ideological landscape.


When it comes to US, adding more candidates doesn't change the politics. Genuine grassroots campaigns have an almost impossible climb against establishment endorsed candidates in both major parties, and creating your own party does nothing either. Without a large battle chest, you ain't gonna win against a candidate with a huge corporate campaign budget. If anything, adding more candidates creates a "spoiler" effect, where the establishment candidate doesn't need as many votes, because the opposition vote is split due to two or more opposition candidates. And even if you manage somehow to get elected, you'll have a hard time getting anything done if you don't tow the party line.

The US system steers naturally towards two parties that both advance corporate interests, and that's what's happening now.


I just remembered a guy who became a mayor and then started his own party with some decent, western inspired ideas in my country. Things which are sane in the UK, Ireland, France, Germany, you know, countries which we consider developed.

I really should've saved that story because I can't find it anywhere now.

Basically, on the streets, most people supported him. In reality, people weren't enough. If they even mattered. Turned out you had to align yourself with one of the four major parties or you had zero chance at gaining traction in any county that mattered. Funnily enough, the "easy" counties would be even harder - low population, low income, lack of education, low voter turnout, always voting for populists/authoritarians.

The major parties have the power and the money and there was no way they'd ever let a newcomer just barge in without being vetted first. The majority of new parties were absorbed into the big ones.

This is a joke, I don't know what's to be done about it and I'm sure that's the case in other countries, too. Only good thing is politicians stay out of private business as they're starting to realize the richer the private population becomes, the richer they will be.

And even then, they fail at making a better environment for small businesses, instead choosing to focus on big companies, especially foreign ones. Let them come, buy up everything for cheap and use the population as cheap labor forever. Why would the government care?


Don't need to be a politician. You can be a lobbyist, staffer....


[flagged]


Did Obama (and/or the government at the time) advance any material pro-Netflix legislation?


Obama enacted net neutrality by fiat, which Netflix lobbied for, and benefited Netflix.


>Obama enacted net neutrality by fiat

Not quite. He entered office with net neutrality in effect but then changed the regulatory umbrella it fell under into one without net neutrality in 2009, which Comcast and Verizon took advantage of in the courts. It wasn't until 2015 that ISPs were categorized in Title II and made subject to net neutrality constraints again.

Obama also nominated Ajit Pai to the FCC in the first place.


75% of Californians are pro-right to repair when asked, but that doesn't mean that 75% really know what it means much less care about it. The legislature is probably assuming that the campaign money from the lobbyists will more than make up for the lost votes from the tiny minority that truly cares.


It also depends on who is asking the question. A right-to-repair advocate would ask "Do you support this law that will lower the cost of repairing old phones?" and most people will agree. Then an industry group asks the same people "Do you support this law that will raise the cost of making new phones?" and get a different answer.


Anti-right-to-repair lobby out in full force to stop it—and they’re winning. And yet you’re still blaming the average Joe based on hypothetical questionairre framing.


I realize you’re making a hypothetical point about the importance of question phrasing, but I really don’t see how this law would raise the cost of making new phones.


Doesn't making "repairable" things imply having to add design constraints, which would translate to increased costs of research/development/production?


Anyone who thinks that’s what this is about has not been following Right to Repair. While it would be great if things were designed with repairability in mind, the ask from Right to Repair is that no one be impeded from accessing manuals, components, and software needed for repair.


This specific bill was just about access to repair information and the ability to use third-party repair facilities. However, the Right to Repair organization specifically lists on their policy goals (https://www.repair.org/policy):

> Products should be designed to have their lifespan extended by regular maintenance and repair.

> Design: Integrate Design for Repair principles into eco-design product design practices.

And I have seen Right to Repair efforts that demanded repairable devices, even if that meant more bulk or more cost, or other tradeoffs.

Framework and similar efforts have demonstrated that it's possible to build a repairable device that people actually like, without compromising too much on other factors. But until those substantial engineering efforts had been put in, this seemed like a fundamental tradeoff between two sets of somewhat-incompatible properties consumers may want, and should be able to choose between. (It's still a tradeoff insofar as devices providing repairability don't provide all the features available from other devices.)


What I've heard from the many people who talk about right to repair on YouTube (channels like LTT, EEVBlog, and of course Louis Rossmann), is that they aren't asking for laws to restrict how products can be designed. A law like that is highly unlikely to pass and would seriously anger a lot of people if it did.

It looks like the reason for this mismatch in opinions is because repair.org is not associated with Rossmann. To me, their existence is going to hurt the chances of right to repair, because people will point to their goals as a reason to not consider the part/version of right to repair that should be much less controversial (in a relative sense. any regulations are controversial just due to being regulations)


Why don't they give it a name that isn't deceptive? Like "Right to Purchase Replacement Parts." My guess is because then it wouldn't poll as well.


Right to repair means that if the company A making the product buys a component from another company B, then A cannot forbid B from selling the same component to a repair shop. It does not mean that Apple is no longer allowed to glue their battery into the iPad.


So that means if Apple buys their chips from TSMC, then TSMC can now sell Apples chips directly to whoever wants them?

It’s not surprising it’s a dead bill. That leaves a nice opportunity for TSMC to capture a bunch of Apple’s margin without having had to do any of the chip R&D.


No. TSMC does own that IP. This is about instances where the IP is owned by company B. I don't know how the legislation would work in a case like that. Most likely Apple would be required to sell replacement parts to everyone, rather than only to its licensed repair shops.

In any case this is a theoretical point, it's usually some stupid little chip on the motherboard that got wet and rusty, not the CPU. Or the screen broke. Or the battery is too old.


No, it just means making it possible to buy parts, repair manuals/schematics for products and preventing manufacturers for refusing warranty coverage when a repair is done correctly by a third party or product owner. We have right to repair for cars, and have since the 1970s, and without it... the car economy would be more frightening than it already is.


I think it is reasonable to imagine some manufacturing processes that are single shot construction. Gluing pieces together rather than screws/fasteners comes to mind.


Yes, but this bill wouldn't have affected any of that. Manufacturers could have continued making their devices difficult or even impossible to repair, they just would have had to make their own parts and repair manuals available to third parties.


When you can't repair your device you buy more. More phones sold = more amortization over fixed costs, so the device gets cheaper.


In my experience, lobbyists are essentially individual people hired by an organization to do extensive, cited research on the topic, and develop "well written and formatted" proposals for/against, as well as dedicate time to delivering the proposals and arguments in person. They call the legislators, they schedule meetings with them, they go through whatever bureaucracy of a given office to get in contact with the legislator, and present their information directly in ways that make the legislator "understand" the position better. There might be financial contributions and vague promises of future opportunities, but those tend to come from a different angle via the same organization.

On the other hand, the regular people complain about the topic in pubs and coffee shops and online and at the dinner table, and might fill out a petition or a pre-made letter. They might even send a personalized email or physical letter (too often poorly worded and badly formatted with no evidentiary backing), or leave voice mails with a staffer. They won't do this very often, but feel that they have strength in numbers. Spoiler: receiving the same misspelled email from 5000 people doesn't make the legislator (or their staff) think "oh wow a lot of people are really upset by this", it just to spam/trash cans.

Financial contribution ("bribes") and fancy dinners or gifts are usually the boogeyman when it comes to blaming lobbyists, but those are tangential and not as common as most people think. The biggest factor for a successful lobbyist is the research, presentation, and persistence.


> In my experience, lobbyists are essentially individual people hired by an organization to do extensive, cited research on the topic, and develop "well written and formatted" proposals for/against, as well as dedicate time to delivering the proposals and arguments in person.

My experience is quite different and comes from doing grass roots lobbying at the state and Federal level. Grass-roots lobbying is just where regular citizens go do the lobbying instead of paid professionals. If you ever get a chance to get involved in this kind of lobbying, it will change how you think about government, and you'll be pleasantly surprised to see you can actually make a difference. You'll also find out that being a legislator at any level is an almost impossible job.

Lobbyists (yes, they are individuals, but usually have an organization and staff behind them) are paid to show up and "help" legislators. This ranges from providing information all the way up to writing bills. Often bills are initially written by lobbyists (the joke is that most laws are written by staff interns and lobbyists). The reason lobbyists are effective is simple: legislators all the way up to the US Senate don't have time to do the work needed to write laws, debate them, pass them, campaign, go to parades and graduations and communicate with constituents... so they work with lobbyists, who are well paid to have time. Yes, professional lobbyists always have an ulterior motive, and always have time, because their paycheck depends on it.


> Do the lobbyists have some incredibly legitimate insider information they share with the senators? Do they just throw cash/donations at them?

I do some grass roots lobbying in Indiana. When we can't get a bill to the floor, it usually comes down to this:

1. The public might support the bill, but voters aren't willing to vote across the aisle over the issue behind the bill. So, the politician can kill the bill without fear.

2. There's a technical problem with the bill that would make it a bad law. Sometimes, this is sabotage, but most often, it is discovered late in the process and the bill dies in committee until next session.

3. The law would change the staus quo in some way that is harmful to the close supporters of legislators. This is less about money, and more about relationships.

The answer to all of the above is simple: get more public support, and even work to unseat legislators that are opposed to your issue. State legislators usually don't have a strong grip on their seats (some do), so they can be unseated, often in primary elections.


It was killed in the Appropriations committee on a 7-0 vote, after passing in the Judiciary committee on a 8-1 vote.

The Appropriations committee (AKA Ways and Means in the US House) is where lobbyists spend their money. Anything that costs money has to go through this, and everything costs money.

The argument that this bill cost money was based on the potential impact on the courts as legal actions would be files to enforce the new warranty rights.

Rather than trying to influence every potentially concerned member of legislature, better to spend 100x on the people who control the purse.


California instituted term limits for its state representatives in 1990. It seemed like a good idea at the time, but what you end up with is that the most senior politicians in Sacramento are the lobbyists.

The outcome of that is that most bills are written by lobbyists and most state reps vote how the lobbyists tell them to, because they lobbyists are the ones making the deals with the other lobbyists, instead of the long time representatives being in leadership.

Each system has its pros and cons, but one of the main cons of term limits is that lobbyists are in control.


75% of people like the idea of “right to repair” but that doesn’t mean they would support this particular implementation if they knew the details and side effects. Committees in the ideal allow a more nuanced examination and development of law.

Sponsors have lobbyist support and the bills themselves may be written by them, for them, with any public benefit a side effect. As long as it “sounds good” other lawmakers feel forced to go along with.


I imagine it's very complicated. Sometimes they just need cooperation on other things, then they own stock, their friends own stock, they run in the same social circles, you can bet many are just corrupt and if not their friends are, then there's the actual power the companies have (like the ability to build or layoff in their district, strategically hike prices, minor capital strikes, blackmail (remember who has all the data), all kinds of stuff.) Also, there aren't really any consequences to ignoring you anyway. On average, they'll either get re-elected because nobody notices/understands or they'll just be replaced by a new sock puppet.

This is why you'd want liquid democracy, arbitrary right of recall or something along those lines.


The Democrat party completely controls the state government.

Thee party controls 31 of the 40 seats in the senate, and 60 of the 80 seats in the lower house.

They have had a majority since 1996.


They're also tenured. Even if they disappoint, what are people going to do vote Republican?

Same one party rule situation exists in some very "red" states of course.


> They're also tenured. Even if they disappoint, what are people going to do vote Republican?

Unlike the rest of the country, California has "jungle primaries". So, you can wind up in the election with "Democrat vs Democrat". This prevents the "Barely win the primary and cruise to a safe general election."

In addition, California can put something like this up as a proposition and override the legislature.

However, both of these situations are likely to wind up with a LOT of entrenched money being thrown around in opposition to "right to repair". So, the supporters need to get their ducks in a row and demonstrate real support in the electorate for this.

> Same one party rule situation exists in some very "red" states of course.

I'm speaking in ignorance right now, but I am unaware of any red states that implement either jungle primaries or election propositions.


I'm reminded of this quote:

> The United States is also a one-party state but, with typical American extravagance, they have two of them.


That is a lazy quip. A simply review of legislation passed in the few previous decades shows quite a bit of difference in goals.

Even more of a stark difference once you look at differences in state laws.


> There is only one party in the United States, the Property Party ... and it has two right wings: Republican and Democrat.


Occasionally a politician does so poorly that the voters vote across the aisle. Right to repair can become one of the issues that causes people to vote for the other party. It really sucks to have to throw expensive products away because you simple can't fix them. Not being able to repair products is bad for everything but short term profits.


It will never be in a significant percentage of the population's top 10 issues


We're seeing certain industries where right to repair is getting traction and funding: military and agriculture. As funding for the issue goes up, so will public awareness. Another positive is that right to repair is 100% non partisan.


> Can anyone familiar with the process, explain exactly how these industry lobbyists win these cases? With a 75% of Californians being pro-right to repair, and with bipartisan support - you'd think this would be an easy case to argue.

Well, what does that tell you? Majority public opinion does not matter. Money does.


The devil is often in the details, and working out the details can easily be engineered to kill a bill.


Peoples politics are closer to sports team fandom than anything pragmatic. As long as you keep pulling the red or blue lever no matter what they don't have much incentive to do much of anything.


> Peoples politics are closer to sports team fandom than anything pragmatic.

This is the result of the deliberate way in which clever malicious spindoctors manipulated political debate over the years in such a way so that what once was a pondered opinion became later akin to a religious affiliation. The bottom line is that an opinion can be changed while a religious belief cannot; it's the system's way to ensure that once a voter is captured it stays loyal forever.


Let's don't be too credulous about the polling performed by the bill's supporters. What would be the "pro right to repair" fraction if it were posed as a tradeoff between repairability and a slightly higher retail price?

In my personal opinion the "security lock" language of this bill is dangerously vague, and the benefits it offers in terms of third-party repair are worth almost nothing to me, so I opposed the bill.


It is all about money. Always was and always will be. Politicians of both colors love the cash, they are addicted to the cash.

https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/ftc-report-shows-growing-i...

Politician support corporations, not the people. Wake the F up.


Here’s a thread about the pitfalls of issue polling. https://mobile.twitter.com/davidshor/status/1355186871354200...




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