It depends how hard the problem is. In an introductory writing class, you get maximum utility by letting anyone in. Whereas a graduate math class will usually have pretty stiff prerequisites; the median undergraduate would get zero benefit from such a class.
Startups are more like a graduate math class. Most people aren't suited to it.
Also, I think your numbers are off. We're not funding people whose chance of succeeding is 90%. I doubt anyone starting a startup has a 90% chance of succeeding. We'd be delighted if our success rate was as high as 50%. Maybe we're bumping people's chances up from 30% to 40%.
Startups are more like a graduate math class. Most people aren't suited to it.
That's a good point. It makes me think I would have to start younger (and with more basics), if I wanted to help a lot more people figure out how to do startups. A little bit about my background might help explain why I'm thinking about these things the way I am:
Until I was 16 year old, my maths teachers told me and my parents that I just wasn't suited to the subject. I agreed with them! It seemed impenetrable and boring. Then a kind physics teacher finally explained what maths is really about, and taught me a few of the things I had missed in the last few years. Within a few months I went from nearly bottom of my year to easily top, and eventually got a PhD in pure mathematics.
This experience often makes me suspect there are large numbers of people who could be great in some field, if only someone would help them with the first few steps. Of course I have nothing to back up this suspicion with, and perhaps people have less latent talent than I like to believe. But then again, maybe not.
Also, I think your numbers are off.
Definitely. I chose them more to make my point intuitive than to reflect the reality of startups.
In an introductory writing class, you get maximum utility by letting anyone in.
Even then—at least at the college level—a lot of universities have tracks of various kinds; at the University of Arizona, there's a normal 101 / 102 class sequence (where most students land), a 109 class (where students with AP or other credentials land), and a development class the name of which escapes me (where students who basically can't write land). From what I can tell, a lot of high schools do something similar.
Even then, I've seen students in 101 who really can't write, and students in 109 who clearly can't take the pace.
Maybe we're bumping people's chances up from 30% to 40%.
This reminds me of MFA programs, which are basically trying to do the same thing: most people in MFA programs never publish anything substantial. But the goal of the program is to give the kind of boost you're describing.
Well, the real goal might actually be to provide employment for the profs, but at the very least the subsidiary goal of helping 10% go to 20%, or being a catalyst for many people, persists.
Startups are more like a graduate math class. Most people aren't suited to it.
Also, I think your numbers are off. We're not funding people whose chance of succeeding is 90%. I doubt anyone starting a startup has a 90% chance of succeeding. We'd be delighted if our success rate was as high as 50%. Maybe we're bumping people's chances up from 30% to 40%.