I think CoPilot, etc will be revolutionary tools AND I think human coders are needed. Specifically I love CoPilot for the task of "well specified algorithm to solve problem with well-defined inputs and outputs". The kind of problem you could describe as a coding challenge.
BUT, our jobs have a lot more complexity
- Local constraints - We almost always work in a large, complex existing code base with specific constraints
- Correctness is hard - writing lots of code is usually not the hard part, it's proving it correct against amorphous requirements, communicated in a variety of human social contexts, and bookmarked.
- Precision is extremely important - Even if 99% of the time, CoPilot can spit out a correct solution, the 1% of the time it doesn't creates a bevy of problems
Are those insurmountable problems? We'll see I suppose, but we begin to verge on general AI if we can gather and understand half a dozen modalities of social context to build a correct solution.
Not to mention much of the skill needed in our jobs has much more to do with soft skills, and the bridge between the technical and the non technical, and less to do with hardcore heads-down coding.
BUT, our jobs have a lot more complexity
- Local constraints - We almost always work in a large, complex existing code base with specific constraints
- Correctness is hard - writing lots of code is usually not the hard part, it's proving it correct against amorphous requirements, communicated in a variety of human social contexts, and bookmarked.
- Precision is extremely important - Even if 99% of the time, CoPilot can spit out a correct solution, the 1% of the time it doesn't creates a bevy of problems
Are those insurmountable problems? We'll see I suppose, but we begin to verge on general AI if we can gather and understand half a dozen modalities of social context to build a correct solution.
Not to mention much of the skill needed in our jobs has much more to do with soft skills, and the bridge between the technical and the non technical, and less to do with hardcore heads-down coding.
Exciting times!