In order to qualify for the run-off, Macron had to end up in the top 2 first. Which he did. And that En Marche got the parliament as well was a bit of a surprise. Curious to see how things play out next year so.
If Le Pen or Zemmour get through to the second round then I imagine Macron will win, as voters unite to avoid them winning, much as happened in the previous elections.
Although I guess Le Pen and Zemmour might split each others vote, preventing them from reaching the second round.
The National Assembly scores wasn't a surprise, since presidential mandate last 5 years like the AN's deputies mandate and the AN elections come right after the presidential election we haven't see any cohabitation government like it was the case in the past when the presidential mandate lasted 7 years. And LREM, which is easy to place as centrist, is full of recruits that come from the PS (Socialist Party) and LR (The Republican, last name in date of the main party from the right). And LREM got the support of classic center party like the MODEM which get many members promoted in the current government structures.
Yeah, him getting a majority was the bigger surprise. The presidential election is a popularity contest. Both major, traditional parties shot themselves in the foot repeatedly and lost a lot of their appeal. Then, in a runoff against Le Pen, you just win by not being a Nazi.
Getting enough MPs, so many of them outsiders, on a technocratic platform (so without pulling th usual emotional strings) was quite impressive. Of course, the end result is not great, but then nothing really is these days
Sometimes Macron makes me think of Schröder in Germany. Both came as a surpise, both had to implement some unpopular measures. In the case of Schröder, these measures helped to get Germany back on its economic feet (Germany was Europe's sick man in the 90s) and ultimately cost him his Chancellory further down the road. And not all these reforms were actually "good", Hartz 4 is still a damn disgrace for rich, highly industrialized country. Not that it will be changed anytime soon, regardless of the next government we get. We'll see how Macron does.
Not being a Nazi is actually good thing so. Even more so if it wins elections!
