Tell GIMP not to include the EXIF and XMP data (which doesn't get any smaller when you decrease the quality). Then tell it to use 4:2:0 chroma subsampling, and set the quality to 24 or so.
It just looks a bit blocky/fuzzy when I try this. It doesn't look great, but it retains much more detail than the dithered version. It looks a bit better at the same size as a HEIC image.
I would say at that point it's arguable which artifacts are preferable (compression or dithering), not compression being a clear winner.