My prediction for all the inner-city commercial property that's becoming vacant due to a post-pandemic shift to WFH, is that it will be reclaimed by resurgent cottage industry
That would be sustainable in a gentrifying or high income area, as bespoke products are massively expensive. I've been purchasing custom made shoes for many years now, and it's not unusual to spend $500-1500 even for medium level quality (not peak quality, like Berlutti shoes[1]).
The stubborn fact is that economies of scale are a real thing, and so there is a limited market for paying bespoke prices for every day objects like shoes.
I doubt it. Where I live there are swaths of commercial real estate left vacant before the pandemic. Apparently the same few property brokers are buying up all property, raising commercial rents a ton, and just sitting on it. They don't even care if they have tenets because speculation is raising the values so much they still come out ahead.
If underlying demand doesn't recover (seems unlikely it will reach pre-Covid levels again for many years), won't this still lead to a collapse eventually?
Vacant storefronts in big cities don't represent that much of the economy and without getting too into the weeds, the way they are financed often incentivizes owners to keep them vacant for potentially >10years racking up debt rather than rent below a certain price point which would trigger legal mechanisms that force them to put up a lot more cash immediately.
Absent vacancy taxes or some new regulations on commercial real estate the problem might persist indefinitely.
I think this is an important point. Even if debt can be used to avoid tax, you only want to put that debt towards something that builds equity. The commercial real estate market can only be in denial for so long before the fire sales begin and rents collapse. The fundamentals for inner city office space have gone out the window.. and the situation will only get worse.
