Good for Waymo and hopefully Google keeps up this science project. But it's a very limited and almost as perfect an environment as you could have outside of a controlled test area. Those who were saying L4/5 would be decades at least away seem to be those who were on the right track. Kids growing up today are going to have to learn to drive.
L5 may be decades away. I think we will see L4 in some major metro areas in the US by end of this decade. SF is heating up with Cruise and Waymo's heavy testing. Their progress will be a great indicator for true city driving.
>we will see L4 in some major metro areas in the US by end of this decade
I think you're far more likely to see L4 on limited access highways in good weather. A robotaxi service in a major city seems much more problematic given all the random behavior by other cars, pedestrians, cyclists, etc. and picking up/dropping off people in the fairly random ways that taxis/Ubers do. (And you'll rightly be shut down 6 months for an investigation the first time you run over someone even if they weren't crossing at a crosswalk.)
And for many people, including myself, automated highway driving would actually be a much bigger win than urban taxi rides which I rarely have a need for.
