> On the other hand, if repair is easy for third parties, warranty becomes far less important.
Exactly. Not a single car I've owned has been under warranty, and that's been entirely fine by me, because I can always take it to a shop or take it to a mechanically-inclined friend or fix it myself. Likewise with desktops and laptops; there's been no need for a warranty if I can fix it myself, and until recently (what with the "let's make everything as pointlessly thin as possible" craze) that's almost always been the case.
Microsoft would have to diagnose the problem as being outside the warranty.
On the other hand, if repair is easy for third parties, warranty becomes far less important.