Customers don't need to be excited about your products to make a boatload of money.
I don't think anyone is excited to buy gas at $4 a gallon, but that doesn't make it an unprofitable business to be in. MS has been running with out it's founder for years and has been moderately successful.
If one is to believe the reality distortion field that Jobs is central to Apple's success then his health problems pose a major problem to the long term value of the stock.
Apple has some very serious competitive risks (Android) and some very serious internal risks (Jobs' health). Apple's stock price is based on the idea of maintaining 30% growth for the next few years, that's a much more difficult goal than to lose 2% per year. Also, Moore's law is still relevant in the mobile market meaning that people replace their phones fairly frequently to get better hardware support. A mobile phone from 5 years ago is clearly inferior to most people whereas a computer from 5 years ago is mostly adequate for most users. What this means is that there is still time in mobile for a major competitor to emerge. The desktop PC market is locked up and belongs to Microsoft. The desktop PC running Windows is also a core part of the business to a lot of companies in the same way that Mainframes are to the financial industry. Yes, Microsoft's Desktop PC business will continue to decline for years, but it's a steady essentially risk free revenue stream. The mobile revenue stream is still largely up for grabs.
Microsoft also has big inroads into enterprise sales which could solidify WinPhone 7 in the enterprise which would bring in some pretty big bucks.
Customers don't need to be excited about your products to make a boatload of money.
Then why does Microsoft keep wasting money trying to get people excited about its products? I see what you're saying, which is that there are still strategies Microsoft can use to keep their business going. The problem is that they aren't using those strategies. They keep trying and failing at putting together exciting new products for end users because they just aren't as good at it as Apple.
> Also, Moore's law is still relevant in the mobile market meaning that people replace their phones fairly frequently to get better hardware support. A mobile phone from 5 years ago is clearly inferior to most people whereas a computer from 5 years ago is mostly adequate for most users.
Agreed, and also the dominant software platform has not emerged yet, like it has with the PCs. The market is still highly fragmented and applications are routinely being written for many platforms. There is still time for someone other than Apple and Google to build something there.
In the meantime, MS has quite a bit of time I think. Those mobile devices will remain "niche" devices for a long time, as these platforms mature. Right now using my phone while i'm outside the house or using a tablet on my couch is great, but that doesn't mean i can dispense with my desktop, where MS is king. That will remain for probably a long time.
The holy grail in my opinion is a single device that i can use as a phone, and also hook up to monitors + peripherals and get a full unabridged desktop experience. Why have two devices when you can have one. Obviously the Atrix is already a step towards that, so i'm not pointing out anything particularly new. Of all the existing players, I think MS is potentially even better positioned than Apple to get in on that game since they already have a lock on the desktop platform.
My problem with you're argument is that you're focused on strategies/ideas/potential. Microsoft's strategy has always been simple, dominate every software market. There's nothing inherently wrong with that strategy, probably never will be. No one denies the future potential either. It's about execution.
Dominating market's is hard. It requires incredible leadership and execution. Execution is no small thing, you can't just assume that once you have the idea you will be able to execute. So while it's fine to believe in Microsoft's future, instead of telling me what is possible, tell me why I should believe they will be able to execute.
I don't think anyone is excited to buy gas at $4 a gallon, but that doesn't make it an unprofitable business to be in. MS has been running with out it's founder for years and has been moderately successful.
If one is to believe the reality distortion field that Jobs is central to Apple's success then his health problems pose a major problem to the long term value of the stock.
Apple has some very serious competitive risks (Android) and some very serious internal risks (Jobs' health). Apple's stock price is based on the idea of maintaining 30% growth for the next few years, that's a much more difficult goal than to lose 2% per year. Also, Moore's law is still relevant in the mobile market meaning that people replace their phones fairly frequently to get better hardware support. A mobile phone from 5 years ago is clearly inferior to most people whereas a computer from 5 years ago is mostly adequate for most users. What this means is that there is still time in mobile for a major competitor to emerge. The desktop PC market is locked up and belongs to Microsoft. The desktop PC running Windows is also a core part of the business to a lot of companies in the same way that Mainframes are to the financial industry. Yes, Microsoft's Desktop PC business will continue to decline for years, but it's a steady essentially risk free revenue stream. The mobile revenue stream is still largely up for grabs.
Microsoft also has big inroads into enterprise sales which could solidify WinPhone 7 in the enterprise which would bring in some pretty big bucks.