Given the simplicity of electric cars I feel like the Tesla would be in a pretty good spot.

But Tesla's continuous improvement means parts aren't tied to model years and are often already hard to track down. They're not going to be made by third parties given the lack of scale.

I'm foreseeing small faults totalling otherwise perfectly good cars later on in the current generation.

If Tesla ramps up like they're claiming though, this problem will sort itself out.

Lol. “Continuous improvement” is a great euphemism.

I don't know anything about cars, but do those old BMWs have software that requires maintenance? Tesla likely will.

At some point they can just freeze the upgrades like Apple does and just provide maintenance.

A bit of a pain to be supporting some LTS versions, but not that big relative to the billions in sales you're supporting with it.

Presumably they'll end of life the car at some point and repair will shift to third party shops. Do they have access to the internals of the car?

Lets see, had to recently replace the radiator reservoir, the alternator, and had an oil leak in my 10yo 328i. These parts don't exist in a Tesla.

Should be interesting to see what does breakdown though.

But does your bmw have a leaky door, sunroof, trunk, or lights?

What about a charger? Or random electrical errors?

I don’t buy the “less maintenance” part. Maybe stuff breaks less often but if it breaks, you’re screwed.

Anyway we’ll see. I’d gladly be proven wrong.

Also, there are other brands. I think everyone agrees EVs will eventually be more reliable, Tesla is just a worst case scenario with their “high volume” “beta release” (model S)

>But does your bmw have a leaky door, sunroof, trunk, or lights?

Yeah my '97 actually did have a leaky back windshield after the stripping got old enough. The lights fill with water on my father's '02.

Are you joking asking me if an old BMW has electrical problems? If you've never owned one the answer is yes.

Your ‘97? That’s 23 years old...

My 98 BMW 316i never had issues

EVs have far fewer parts than ICE vehicles - transmission radically simpler, no radiator, exhaust, etc etc - I would take a 10 year old Tesla over a BMW any day.

ICE vehicles don't have a battery that costs $15k to replace after 15 years though

Batteries get cheaper over time. Getting a replacement will be less expensive than getting a new car.

modern performance bmws (which compete w/teslas) do not last 15 years. nothing even close. not even half that.

Are you saying, eg, a BMW M3 wouldn't last for 7.5 years? Sounds like you've drank some strong Tesla koolaid.

nope, i used to own an m5. here's a letter i sent to BMW years ago.

To whom it may concern,

I purchased an E39 M5 in 2000, which at the time was the absolute pinnacle of automotive achievement. No other car came close to the blend of utility, luxury, performance and driving ex- perience. I was thrilled.

After a few years of ownership, I began to be troubled by the frequency with which I had to visit the repair shop. It seemed that every few months something else had gone wrong, and needed to be repaired, or more often, replaced. All of the repairs have been done at an authorized BMW repair center, with only one exception when my passenger seat broke; BMW wanted over six hundred dollars for a repair that someone else did for me for $50.

Dino Belotti, my Service Representative, has been nothing short of fantastic. He made every visit as painless as possible. The problem is, there were far too many visits. I’m sure he’s got a special file in his drawer with my name on it that is significantly thicker than any other in his drawer. Or then again, maybe they are all that thick. One wonders.

As you can see, the list is quite extensive. Too extensive. In fact, despite only driving my M5 about once per month in the last year, the pace of repairs has not slowed down. The last straw was this past weekend, when I drove my M5 for the first time since getting it back from the repair shop the week prior, and it started to rain. Wouldn’t you know, but the wipers fail to function. So for that round trip to the shop I had exactly zero trouble-free drives in my car.

This is what I have had to replace on this car since I bought it new in 2000: * passenger-side mirror (twice) * interior rear-view mirror * clutch (erroneously blamed for noise when I had an engine problem) * flywheel (erroneously blamed for noise when I had an engine problem) * brake rotors * right rear taillight assembly (connectors had corroded/fused) * right rear taillight assembly again (connectors had corroded/fused) * navigation system including head unit * stereo amplifier * center console (twice -- once damaged during another service) * hazard lights switch * front cup holders (filmsy plastic that's a joke... I never use them and they still broke!) * passenger front seat (as noted, this lone repair was done at a non-authorized BMW service center) - the motor (yes, the entire motor. a $17,000 part) * the battery * front passenger-side blinker assembly * driver's side interior door trim * front spoiler * on-board computer * O2 sensor * parking brake * air-conditioning unit * air-conditioning unit again * central locking feature (keys needed to be replaced and reprogrammed) * two replacement windshields (one developed a crack randomly, the other due to impact) - transmission universal joint * gas tank cover actuator * passenger side rear-view mirror (third time) * front spoiler undercarriage panels * coin tray cover * shifter knob (just fell apart) * rubber moulding around the windshield * ABS brake pump (a $3,000 part) * brake bushings * final stage resistor (not sure what this is) * paint on the wheels peeled off, looking absolutely embarrassing. Had them repainted. That de- veloped spider cracks. Had them repainted again. I don’t know whose decision it was to paint wheels. Bad choice. * windshield wipers no longer work * BMW logo just peeled off the front of the car. The irony of this last defect is not lost on me.

With only a mid-level understanding of how cars work, I have to think long and hard about what parts of the car I bought that I haven’t had to pay to replace. The above list reflects only what I could remember at the time of writing this letter. I’m sure there are many more repairs not listed here, but on file at Vista BMW.

I am a huge fan of BMW, and when I bought the M5 for me and the X5 for my wife, I sincerely hoped that we would stay within the BMW family for a long time. I wanted my M5 to be a car that my son could drive some day. I love it that much. But given this track record, it is unfortunately a car I can no longer afford to keep, nor can I in good conscious recommend that anyone I care for buy a BMW.

My repair history has changed me from a fan of BMWs, to someone who cautions others about buying them. I do not know what, if anything, can bring me back into the BMW family, but I thought someone at the highest level of BMW should know of my experience.

A BMW straight six with a manual transmission can be expected to last 300K miles, and if you choose the right one (some models are notoriously bad), the maintenance isn't even that bad. Electronics are damn expensive to fix in any car, though, which is one of the best reasons to prefer older cars with less of that error-prone stuff. German cars have crappier electronics than others, for some reason. (It's no longer even possible to build really reliable electronics in the age of ROHS lead-free solder.)

Bull.

There are plenty driving old BMWs.

My 15 year old Volvo suv with V8 runs fine. No leaks either

And yet, most of the troublesome parts on my diesel car aren’t related to the engine or transmssion.

It’s mainly electrics and the front suspension.

That’s not much of a comparison — BMWs aren’t known to age well.

Compare it to a Honda at 200k miles or 10 years.

Are Telsas known to age well? I can't imagine long term build quality is lowly correlated with short term build quality. But the electric drive train is a major complicating factor.

It is a mixed bag. Early model S cars are only 8-9 years old right now. Still pretty young to determine true long term reliability. Tesla also kept the reputation decent early on by offering warranty repairs on pretty much everything. I've heard it is not uncommon when looking at an 2012 model S to have reports of 10+ door handle replacements. The real test will come at the EOL time for batteries. If it is similar to hybrids, that comes at ~15 years. I imagine in ~2027 virtually all original model S cars will be in junk yards/salvage auctions when they are totaled by a dead battery.

There’s no parts supply or third party sources of most components, so I’d guess that you’ll have cars off the road for stupid part failures before the drivetrain is caput.