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Quick note:

Boeing got the big bucks at $5B or so for their crewed services because they have the "better" more reliable design.

SpaceX only got $3B or so.

Boeing running roughly 60%+ more per seat as well.

So a real accomplishment so far for SpaceX to pull this off.



If I heard correctly, SpaceX got less because they were already running regular resupply missions to ISS and not because they had "worse, less reliable design".


Must adjust for the grift. Boeing are professionals at this process.


Also because it costs less when you can reuse the booster rocket.


And now you know why Boeing never bothered to develop reusable rockets.


No, that doesn't make sense. SpaceX can achieve much higher profit margins by reusing rockets, even with lower prices, because their costs are lowered by a much greater proportion thanks to reusability.

Also, Boeing doesn't make mistakes as the result of some bizarre conspiracy that turns out to benefit them in the end. Most of Boeing's mistakes hurt Boeing.


> SpaceX can achieve much higher profit margins by reusing rockets

What I've always heard is the legacy defense contractors are used to cost-plus contracts where you don't make bigger profits by reducing costs. They sometimes don't adapt well to firm-fixed-price contracts because changing the organizational culture takes ages. And also the reality is that they can keep raking in money anyway -- Boeing is in fact collecting more cash than SpaceX, so it's not even clear the incentives have changed that much.


That might be the case, but it doesn't take a genius to realize that you can turn a bigger profit by making your rockets reusable. Boeing isn't even just a "legacy defense contractor"--a massive part of their business is commercial airliners. That hasn't gone well for them either lately.

I think the more reasonable explanation for Boeing is that they already have access to ULA's proven launch vehicles, so designing a new one just for Starliner wasn't necessary. I think Boeing just chose a more conservative strategy while SpaceX managed to out-innovate them.


> Boeing just chose a more conservative strategy

That's the legacy defense contractor strategy -- deliver something that checks off the boxes on the government requirement list at an exorbitant price. It's a very conservative strategy; lots of money, no risk.

The problem is that at some point SpaceX started landing rockets and the formerly safe strategy became extremely risky because Boeing/ULA not only has a competitor, the competitor is cheaper. But getting a fat, lazy organization to innovate and compete is hard even when facing an existential threat, and Boeing/ULA have not (yet?) managed that transformation. They've known it's necessary for years [1] but haven't been able to change course.

[1] https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/03/ula-executive-admits...


Yes, and that NASA expected this from them, that is, they were expected to be a credible, reliable-but-expensive (and not particularly innovative) option.


u/Teever was making a joke, I think.


Did they ask for less?


Yes, SpaceX did request less funding than Boeing for this program.


This is very wrong.

The Commercial Crew contract started with NASA providing guidelines of what they wanted.

Multible companies could give a suggestion of their design and how much it would cost.

The two best of those were suggested. The amount of money was not assigned based on their evaluation what was better, that is absolutely not the case.

Rather they selected 2 proposals that had the best combination based of factors, including cost, design, program reliability and so on.

So Boeing was luck that their (at that point) high status got them selected over the cheaper bid of Sierra Nevada (who tried to fight the choice).

So its not like they first selected the two companies and then assigned them money based on how good their designs were.


SpaceX had a pretty different record wrt reliability back in 2014. And to be fair I think it's more likely that Boeing was competing against Sierra Nevada, not SpaceX


> they have the "better" more reliable design.

It’s easy to claim that vapor is better. Making it into non-vapor, not so easy.

I do see that you at least put “better” in quotes... good call.


But Boeing is forever crooning: "Yeah, but we put a man on the Moon." So NASA will lick their boots anytime and pay them whatever they want.

Off course, if Boeing messes up again, the carpet will be pulled from under their feet.


I think it's more that the DoD props up Boeing in any way they can, from sweetheart contracts like this, to trade policies designed to destroy competition (the Bombardier thing), to outright industrial espionage of other firms (the leaks of Airbus's foreign negotiations).

Edit: Changed Embraer to Bombardier thanks to emiliobumachar's friendly reminder.



The WTO is run by a very specific brand of economists that don't see the value in a country subsidizing an industry to maintain local expertise in that industry.

I for one disagree pretty heavily with this ruling.


The WTO is run by bureaucrats who enforce the terms of the membership agreement. If national governments think it's important to subsidize local industries then they should negotiate agreements to allow for that. Don't blame the WTO.


That has the effect of cutting yourself off from more or less all trade.

The WTO leaves you with three options as not the US. 1) Capitulate and lose about any industries as the efficiencies of scales of the US economy steam rolls any industries they don't explicitly prop up in your country (the Israel model if you're lucky, the African model if you're unlucky). 2) Cut yourself off from essentially all global trade (the North Korea model) 3) form a large enough economy that you can flaunt more and more of the WTOs rules because what are they going to do? (The Chinese and EU model).


While it might make sense to provide an exemption for local industries that have critical defence or security implications, politicians may find themselves tempted to expand the scope of that to include other "national interest" products, like yoghurt:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45866508


Are you suggesting that industrial espionage is okay if the targeted company is receiving subsidies from their government?

I'm sure the Chinese will love that angle.


No, more indicating that both these companies receive so much patronage from their respective national defense agencies/industries and provide employment cover to their respective intelligence agencies that I’m not sure there’s a clean line between actions of them as private actor vs them as state actor. Doesn’t rationalize espionage or maybe it does, I don’t know. I just don’t think the set-up of Airbus, the innocent industrial, as victims of evil Boeing is a realistic implication. These are both behemoths tightly hooked to their national defense apparatus.

As for China, I think that angle is their acknowledged policy plus some.


Boeing bought a large chunk of Embraer, then refused to pay after Embraer split itself in two.

Could you or anyone please explain what the DoD or its trade policies have to do with that? Or were you talking about another Embraer thing?


Sorry, Bombardier, not Embraer.

Them getting out of the commercial jet industry had the US's geopolitical fingerprints all over it.


NASA recently selected three teams to start development of new human lunar landers. Boeing's proposal was not one of the three selected.


I wonder if the layoffs announced this week will affect those programs.


Probably not. They have been transferring workers from the programs where contracts are slow (commercial airlines) to those with more steady revenues (DoD contracts) to minimize layoffs. I haven't read up on the newest wave of Boeing layoffs yet.


Incorrect. The layoffs were primarily in the commercial division, and the defense is primarily untouched.


That's what I meant to say (with the additional info that Boeing claims they laid off fewer workers from the commercial division because the company claims some of them were transferred to defense). I'm sorry if my wording was confusing.




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