> Wouldn't a rational society also deal with likely and possible scenarios?
I have yet to find a good way of phrasing this, but there is the phrase "justified true belief" that captures a whole discussion in philosophy on knowledge. However, that debate only covers the past and present, it can't cover the future. Perhaps what I'm looking for is something like "forward-looking statements" in the SEC sense - statements about the future which are inherently probabilistic, but the statement-maker has a responsibility to be truthful and advance a reasoned argument for their plausibility.
I have yet to find a good way of phrasing this, but there is the phrase "justified true belief" that captures a whole discussion in philosophy on knowledge. However, that debate only covers the past and present, it can't cover the future. Perhaps what I'm looking for is something like "forward-looking statements" in the SEC sense - statements about the future which are inherently probabilistic, but the statement-maker has a responsibility to be truthful and advance a reasoned argument for their plausibility.