I hope that the outcome you describe occurs. However, it seems equally likely that a centralised alternative will appear in China, just as there are local Chinese variants of the services Google, FB, et al. provide. Indeed, this would be in the interests of the government, who would then be able to have GitHub without the political ructions that accompany it.
Using technology/standard/service provided by US based private companies introduce risks. We are not just 'use/steal' these technologies/standard, we also heavily invest, enrich ecosystem, build services on top of them, that means if US government kill it at any time, those investments may lost too.
Based on my experience, Chinese government is so incompetent that it can't create an alternative, or initiate one, at least in the Internet industry, also China have to do business with other countries(other than US), so clearly create a private tech/standard stack is not an option. That means big companies like Huawei/Tencent/Alibaba/Baidu will start/continue to support&invest more in true open technologies, like linux/risk-v, perhaps favor true oss communities rather than google/fb owned oss projects(like android/arm/tensorflow).
Companies in countries other than China and US should also think about this risk, today US is banning Huawei, you may think it's all because China is evil, similar things happened for Japan 2 decades ago, and may still possible for India(if its population and GDP growth rate continues).
it's not all black and white like that. Chinese govt has been encouraging violating patents and corporate espionage for decades now. At the same time, it's threatening all its neighbors. The issue is not the population/GDP growth. The issue is that China wants to run the world, and USA doesn't want to give up its mantle.
A code hosting service that can be persuaded to not host projects that can inconvenience the government (or party)? I guess this sounds attractive to a certain kind of people.
Where "certain kind of people" would be "all people in China" since their options would be limited to either (a) use said service or (b) not access the blocked original version.
Ceteris paribus, a blocked service is better than no service, yes. But (1) VPNs exist, (2) decentralisation is surely not so infeasible as to rule out evasion of various blocks, and (3) the government might even decide to prioritise scientific development over absolute political control. (Certainly it seems that the scientists within the party are agitating for freer access to foreign papers.)
